Oil Jumps As US-Iran Ceasefire Faces Uncertainty

By Staff, Agencies

Oil prices surged Thursday as doubts mount over the stability of the US–Iran ceasefire, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and concerns that West Asian supplies may not fully return.

Meanwhile, as of 00:48 GMT, Brent crude futures were up $2.60, or 2.74%, at $97.35 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate [WTI] gained $3.02, or 3.2%, to reach $97.43 per barrel.

Following a volatile week, oil prices rebounded following a sharp drop triggered by the US–Iran ceasefire. WTI had surged to $111.29 and Brent to $107.57 on Tuesday amid Trump’s threats against Iran, then plunged over 16% and 13%, respectively, as the ceasefire was announced.

However, the brief relief in the Strait of Hormuz ended as tanker traffic stalled again following "Israel’s" largest attacks on Lebanon since the war began. Only two vessels managed to pass before the waterway was fully closed, with one tanker forced to turn back.

In response, Iran warned that “either there is a ceasefire on all fronts, or there is no ceasefire on any front,” stressing that Washington must enforce the ceasefire or risk continued war through "Israel."

Additionally, Tehran conditioned its participation in Islamabad negotiations on a Lebanon ceasefire.

The stakes of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure are high, as analysts warn that continued disruption could push Brent prices from Goldman Sachs’ revised Q2 forecast of $90 per barrel to $115 in Q4, or even toward $200 in a worst-case scenario, marking the largest supply shock since the 1970s oil crisis.

Moreover, the US Energy Information Administration projects sustained supply losses, with flows peaking at 9.1 million barrels per day in April and global inventories drawing down by 5.1 million bpd in Q2, keeping oil prices elevated even if the strait reopens.