Eye on the Enemy: Prisoners Granted Amnesty Will Be ’’On Probation’’, ’’Israeli’’ Missile for Azerbaijan
Sixty "Israeli" drones co-produced in Azerbaijan for Baku. Spy satellites next
DEBKAfile
"Israeli" missile-carrying UAV for Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan's election to a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council brings to the world body for the next two years a government which has cultivated lively military and economic ties with "Israel".
Those ties are constantly challenged by Turkey's military industries, giving Ankara yet another reason to scowl at "Jerusalem". Russia, Armenia and Iran also view this collaboration with distrust, especially the rapid arming of the Azerbaijan army with assorted types of "Israeli" drones co-produced in new factories established in Azerbaijan.
Both Moscow and Tehran are actively looking for ways to torpedo this expanding military partnership.
"Debkafile's" military sources report that within the next two months, the Azerbaijani army will take delivery of 60 drones of two types, the "Orbiter" 2M, whose altitude ceiling is 4-6 kilometers and can stay in the air up to 5 hours; and
"Aerostar", which can go as high as 10 kilometers and stay aloft for 12 hours.
Seventy percent of their components are manufactured in "Israel", 30 percent in the new Azerbaijani factories.
This collaboration may be just the beginning.
At the end of September, Yavar Jamalov, Azerbaijan's Minister of Defense Industry, talked about building missile-carrying drones. It was the first hint that the two governments had reached terms on joint production of this advanced unmanned aerial craft.
Our sources report he was referring to the "Hermes" 450 produced by Elbit, having already absorbed the "Hermes' 450 in his armed forces. According to Western intelligence sources, "Jerusalem" and Baku are also deep in discussion on the sale of "Israeli" military spy satellites.
Tehran is worried. "Debkafile's" Iranian sources report that in addition to the radar stations "Israel" has installed on the Caspian shore with an open eye on Iran, it is about to acquire bases in Azerbaijan for long-range drones able to keep the Islamic Republic's nuclear sites under surveillance.
Turkey, for its part, made an unsuccessful effort to freeze "Israel" out of the Azerbaijani drone market.
On a recent visit to Baku, the Secretary of Military Industry at the Turkish defense ministry, Murat Bayar, tried to persuade the government to buy its long-range "Anka" drone instead of the "Israeli" tactical aerial vehicle. He promised Turkish financing for the construction of a special factory in Azerbaijan.
However, the prototype of the Turkish drone is still under construction and won't be finished until next year. Only then will it starting gaining operational experience. The Azerbaijanis did not say no to the Turkish official but invited him to come back after the finished drone had been put through its paces.
On Sept. 12, an "Israeli"-made and operated drone with Azerbaijan Air Force markings was downed over the Martuni district of Nagorno Karabach, with which Azerbaijan is at war.
The Nagorno Karabakh Ministry of Defense in the capital of Stepanakert said the Azerbaijani drone had been brought down "as a result of ‘special measures' taken by its antiaircraft units."
In its Sept. 22 issue 510, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources reporting the incident interpreted those "special measures" as a combination of Russian antiaircraft officers who entered the tiny Caucasian republic from neighboring Armenia and advanced anti-drone equipment owned by Nagorno Karabakh's antiaircraft defense units.
Western sources believe Moscow had the Azerbaijani drone shot down as a one-off incident for four objectives:
1. A hands-off road sign to "Israel" to stay out of the Caspian Sea region and its conflicts.
Moscow has taken note of "Israel's" deepening economic and military footholds in four countries: Azerbaijan, which is the largest, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Georgia, and regards its supply of arms to these countries as unwanted interference in Russia's backyard.
2. Revenge for "Israel "reneging on its 2009 commitment to build a drone factory in Russia. Moscow decided to confront "Israeli" drone technicians with Russian antiaircraft crews with an unwinnable ambush.
3. Moscow was also telling Tehran that it was serious about cooperating with the Iran to safeguard its rights in the Caspian Sea and willing to use diplomatic, military and intelligence means to halt the spread of Azerbaijani and "Israeli" influence in the region.
4. The Defense Ministry in Stepanakert published pictures of the downed drone deliberately exposing its camera as a warning to "Jerusalem" and Baku that if Azerbaijani drones continue to fly, Moscow may turn the drone's wreckage over to Iranian intelligence experts and let them unravel its secrets.
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A Draft Law: Prisoners Granted Amnesty Will Be "On Probation"
Walla news portal - Pinchas Wolf
The release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange of Shalit drew huge criticism on the amnesty given as a part of the deal.
Now that Shalit's deal is over, a draft law is being finalized to be legislated, which says that each prisoner granted amnesty will be "on probation".
In other words, had the released ex-con committed an additional offense, authorities will have the right to return him to prison to continue serving his original sentence - sources reported to "Walla" on Sunday.
Although the draft law targets all terrorists and criminal prisoners alike, it will also apply on prisoners who might be released in future swap deals. "Any additional offense committed by the prisoners put on probation, proves that he is not worthy of trust or of what he was granted," explained the bill.
At the end of the summer session, the Kenesset approved on the draft law as a first reading. But government representatives explained to MK Dany Danon (Likud) who filed a similar draft law, that legislation will be delayed to avoid Shalit's deal.
Now that Shalit arrived home, the door is opened for further legislation which will halt during the next winter session.
To date, only prisoners who were sentenced to life or prisoners who were granted amnesty for one third of their sentences are labeled as "prisoners on probation".
The draft law demands that all prisoners, if freed, shall be on probation and in case of committing an offense shall return immediately to jail to continue their sentences, noting that the additional offense will have a separate new legal procedure.
According to the draft law, the life-sentenced prisoner who is granted amnesty then commits an offense will be re-put in jail to serve 30 years.
Thus, terrorists who received a life sentence and intend to pursue their terrorist acts will be brought back to jail to serve scores of years.
In May, Danon filed a private draft law that states that terrorists who are granted amnesty and continue to carry out terrorist acts will be brought into jail to serve their original sentence, without the need for further legal proceedings.
Recently, Danon filed a request to the members of the Knesset Constitution Committee in order to expedite the legislation process. Although the law is not retroactive, yet it might affect the release of future Palestinian prisoners, perhaps even those who'll be released in the second phase of Shalit's deal.
"The joy of prisoners must be mixed with fear," said Danon. "President Shimon Peres wrote letters of amnesty that he doesn't forgive or forget. The draft law demands this apply statement and to stress before the prisoners that the State of
"Israel" didn't forget what they did, and will never forgive them. Terrorism has a price, and the new law will make sure it will be high and substantial. Practices of terrorism, no matter how small, will have the same verdict as the one before."
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The Weak Dictates the Rules of the Game
Israel Defense - David Ivry
A lot has been written about the limitation of the use of force in the new era. The powerful could not unleash all his power and all his weapons in his various clashes in recent decades. The measures of fighting were developed to prohibit the usage of force due to the large sensitivity towards civilian casualties, to the losses, and to national and international consensus. Yet the proportionality of "sensitivity" changes between one clash and another.
Proportionality has become one of the most influential measures in decision-making processes related to military operations, not as occurred during World War 1 and 2, in which each side has exhausted its capabilities without proportionality.
What can be concluded is that the weak side dictates the rule of the game in a certain conflict. It challenges the powerful to the point where it cannot use all his force. Thus, the weak side is challenging the powerful at points where severe conditions are put in order not to use its full force.
However, the most important issue to be taken into consideration in the usage of force is the approach which is increasingly more acceptable by the provocative side. The latter is ready to suffer a militarily loss, which triggers the powerful side to cross the reasonable proportionality. That way it will achieve political gains, which are sometimes very simple, like political attention.
Klauzovic said that "war is another means of achieving political goals."
He was referring and analyzing that a military victory should help promote political interests. Accordingly, the winner must maintain a political entity where he can manage the conditions of surrender, and so on.
I believe that Klauzovic did not think that military defeat is also a tool for achieving political goals, but in recent decades it seems that this measure is developing, which represents a fundamental change in use of force.
The stronger side must consider carefully before putting into action any military force, and even if victory is guaranteed, whether military victory advances the political interests or not? This question is right in the time of war as well. When the forecast for further military action could harm political interests, it is better to stop the fighting.
Source: "Hebrew" newspapers, Translated and Edited by moqawama.org
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