’’March 14’’ Wrong Predictions: STL, Syria
By Hilal Salman, al-Intiqad
Hariri entered the White House as Lebanon's Prime Minister, and left two hours later as a former Lebanese PM.
Then, parliamentary consultations were held at Baabda Palace.
In numbers, Mikati won 68 votes in face of 60 for MP Saad Hariri. Long time passed before the Mikati government appeared to light: House Speaker Nabih Berri was the master of solutions: Minister from the Shia sect is to be given to Sunnis and thus securing the life of the new governmental era.
After winning the parliamentary confidence, the government launched its train of work under difficult conditions and weak productivity resulting from debate on STL funding.
However, with the outbreak of the Syrian crisis and the western conspiracy against Syria, some of life's breath was back to this team. They dreamed of toppling the regime in Damascus:
"Perhaps this could happen, and some of parts of the initiative would be back to our ranks in the domestic arena," they wished linking this waiting to a direct line of support to armed terrorist groups in Syria through the smuggling of arms and militants across the northern border and some villages of the Bekaa, and the inventory of an intensive political campaign against the Syrian regime in support of the Syrian opposition.
Hardly had they tried to find a ground for armed Syrians in the north, by calling for the establishment of camps for displaced people, despite their little number. They tried to claim that their numbers are in thousands, but these lies did not deceive the one despite the "March 14" tours on border villages which "Future Movement" gathered its supporters from Wadi Khaled photographing them as Syrian refugees.
In parallel, the domestic arena is still waiting for many files and major benefits over the next year: some of these files are to move from 2011 and the most important to be followed is the electoral law.
Hence, the law of election is expected to take a great deal of political debate, especially with the conflict of political interests.
As 2011 closes its doors on a colorful Lebanese scene, many aspects of the internal picture carriy major modifications:
Majority forces succeeded in installing the foundations of their rule; while "March 14" is suffering a continuous series of loses since its head deserted the country.
Neither did Saad Hariri's wealth nor his presence in the Oval US Presidential White House office preserve his heaven of ruling.
Meanwhile, "March 14's" dreams of toppling the Syrian regime is turning into mirage and this team keeps moving within a vicious circle.
All this comes as many Lebanese files and livelihood issues are to be continued during the next year, most notably: the electoral law, oil wealth, and other sensitive files, including the renewal of the cooperation protocol with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon scheduled next March.
During 2011, Lebanon witnessed major political shifts that led to both, a change in political alliances and the transfer of political power from the helm to another.
With the beginning of the year, "March 8" forces ruled the country while "March 14" forces tasted the bitterness of opposition for the first time since 2006.
This happened as the head of government Saad Hariri took a final decision based on American advices to blow up all the S-S (Syrian- Saudi) efforts which included an agreement whose most prominent provision was to cancel the cooperation protocol with the STL.
In response to Hariri's retreat, the opposition took the option of its 11 ministers' resignation from the government and thus led to overthrow the Hariri's cabinet at the moment the man was received as "guest" of US President Barack Obama on the 25th of last January.
Alliances and alignments changed. Head of "Progressive Socialist Party" leader MP Walid Jumblatt stood again with "March 8" naming Prime Minister Najib Mikati to lead the council of ministers.
A dispute on this file could have toppled the government as PM Mikati linked the survival of his government to passing the funding.
Once again, Speaker Berri pulled out his magic stick inventing the dust of the solution: STL is to be funded from outside the constitutional institutions.
According to the recipe, Lebanese banks funded the STL and the ruling coalition passed the exam with the least damage.
The years' last papers were falling down, and the backbone of the tripartite alliance between Hizbullah, the Free Patriotic Movement, and Amal was strengthened. This was clearly expressed by the cabinet's session that witnessed the passage of Labor Minister Charbel Nahhas wages' decree.
Similarly, the past year witnessed the start of debate on the electoral law within the government on a low fire before the air was "heated up" with a surprise meeting in Bkirki adopting the Orthodox meeting proposal for parliamentary elections.
Back to "March 14", this group lived during the past year a state of loss and lack of political influence, as its head MP Saad Hariri came out of the heaven of authority.
The man preferred to leave "his second home" Lebanon and return to his "first
home" Saudi Arabia leaving the "Future" and "March 14"orphanages, suffering due to his absence and financial crisis that was recently manifested by selling his telecommunications company in Turkey.
It is clear that the New Year will be a warming-up in preparation for the electoral fight in 2013 while the government is to face a major debate under the title of renewing the protocol with the STL.
Another pressing file would be that of oil wealth, which will be a core subject on the governmental agenda to be adopted at the first session.
Moreover, the 2012 is to carry the continuous Lebanese division on the Syrian crisis which "March 14" has to wait additional few months to witness the fall of their "prophecies".
Source: al-Intiqad, Translated and Edited by moqawama.org
