Analysts expect Hizbullah to deal major blow to "Israel"

We are close to a major conflict," he said. "We are at a point of some kind of war. It's very dangerous. You will see Hizbullah hardening its [domestic] position, rather than softening."
Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's words at Moghnieh's funeral on Thursday about an "open war" between Hizbullah and "Israel" were not a mere fulmination fueled by the moment, Moussalli added.
"It is a declaration of war, kind of," he said. "The whole ballgame now is different. I don't think it was just rhetoric and emotion. It's not just venting his anger."
On the other hand, Nasrallah's proclamation of an ongoing, open war represents only an explicit admission of the reality dating to the emergence of Hizbullah in late 1982 to fight against the "Israeli" occupation of South Lebanon, said retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at Notre Dame University. For example, after Hizbullah's then-Secretary General Abbas Moussawi was assassinated by "Israeli" helicopters in February 1992, a car bomb killed 29 at the "Israeli" Embassy in Buenos Aires in March 1992, although Hizbullah has never claimed responsibility for the attack.
"It never was a closed war," Hanna said. "It is not something new. There is no cease-fire. It was a declared war a long time ago. It's not one point out of context. It's a continuation of the same war."
Nasrallah's fiery language at the funeral in Rweiss was to be expected, as an effort to bolster spirits and guarantee the continuity of Moghnieh's work, Hanna added.
"First, he is trying to keep the morale high [and] then to reassure the resistance Imad Moghnieh accomplished everything he was assigned to," Hanna said.
For Hizbullah, Moghnieh's assassination takes precedence over the maneuvering in the 15-month-old domestic political deadlock with the March 14 governing coalition, meaning the Shiite group will step away for some time from street protests or talks over the presidential vacuum, Hanna added. With all the political actors awaiting Hizbullah's response to the killing, the further direction of the political crisis "is in Hizbullah's hands - Mar Mikhael is secondary, the [presidential] election is secondary," Hanna said, referring to the investigation of the deaths of seven opposition supporters on January 27 in Beirut's Mar Mikhael-Shiyyah district.
Hizbullah will first focus on striking back at the Jewish state - which Hizbullah blames for the assassination - in a retaliatory attack on a meaningful target, said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, visiting scholar at the Carnegie Middle East center.
"It will deal a major blow to "Israel"," she said. "Hizbullah assumes that this is war. According to Hizbullah, the war is ongoing. It sees [the assassination] as part of the war."
Nasrallah's comments about "Israel" expanding that war "outside our natural battleground" by killing Moghnieh in Damascus were the most significant element of his speech, Saad-Ghorayeb said, as a signal that Hizbullah would act likewise.
"He was giving an advance claim of responsibility for an operation that Hizbullah will conduct," she said. "In Hizbullah's history, it has never claimed responsibility for any operation against "Israel" or Jewish targets overseas."
Hizbullah will seek out a substantial target as a reflection of the importance of Moghnieh's importance to Hizbullah, Hanna said.
"It's going to be big," Hanna said, because Moghnieh "is irreplaceable. He is a co-founder of Hizbullah.
"When you see [Iranian Foreign Minister] Manouchehr Mottaki in Lebanon attending the funeral, it tells you what the importance of this guy is."
The retaliation will probably not take place in Lebanon, as the Blue Line offers few appetizing targets and is now patrolled by a beefed-up UN peacekeeping force, Hanna said.
"The dynamics of the South do not let Hizbullah wage an open war" there, he said.
Once Hizbullah hits back, Lebanon will have to face the consequences of the inevitable "Israeli" counter-strike, although the violence could amount to only a series of isolated intelligence operations, Hanna said.
"Maybe this will become a security war, tit for tat," Saad-Ghorayeb said, or it could erupt into a regional conflict involving other states. Saad-Ghorayeb pointed out Nasrallah's "unprecedented" vow that Moghnieh's death marks the beginning of a battle that will lead to the eradication of "Israel".
"That implies that Nasrallah is talking about ... a wider regional war," she said, adding that Hizbullah might have interpreted Moghnieh's killing as a desire on the part of "Israel" and the US to reignite a war against Hizbullah. In this context, Mottaki's presence at the funeral signals Iran's backing for whatever steps Hizbullah takes, she said.
"Mottaki's appearance was very important," she said. "It underlines the strategy and ideological relationship between Hizbullah and Iran. This lends support to whatever Nasrallah said and gives added support to Nasrallah's threats."
Hanna, on the contrary, said regional geopolitical strategy did not play a role in the timing of Moghnieh's assassination - an operation as complex as his killing is only part of the unceasing Hizbullah-"Israeli" war and not tied to any other messages or external factors.
"When you get the chance to hit, you hit," Hanna said.