Local Editor

Again, it’s the war scenarios that govern the entity’s military and political circles.

The so called ‘Institute for National Security Studies’ [INSS] warned that “Israel” could face military conflicts on three different fronts—Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip—at the same time in 2019, according to an annual assessment of security challenges. 

"The main three fronts are: Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, and they are very volatile. Despite the continued mutual deterrence between the sides, there is a potential for a military escalation, which could eventually lead to an all-out three-front war … “Israel” is ought to be prepared for this scenario,” said the assessment, which was submitted to President Reuven Rivlin last week.  

One scenario for a three-front war involves the “Israeli” army facing all military forces along the northern border: Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria. The possible “northern border war” is the gravest threat “Israel” faces in the coming year, according to the INSS. 

The INSS researchers believe that to continue foiling Iran's efforts to establish long-term military presence in Syria, as well as the Islamic Republic's attempts to further enrich Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal, "Israel" would have to formulate a new course of action. 

"Iran's military projects in Lebanon and Iraq, as well as Russia's restrictions on “Israeli” activity in Syria, will necessitate either an update to “Israel's” modus operandi or formulating a new approach that would allow to “Israel” to eliminate the threat effectively while avoiding an all-out military confrontation," said the assessment.

The potential for yet another “Israel”-Hamas flare-up is also extremely high in 2019. Although there are many factors that contribute to this assumption, the three main reasons are: the deteriorating socio-economic situation in the Strip; sanctions imposed on Hamas; and the erosion of "Israel's" deterrence, which was achieved in the 2014 Operation Protective Edge.

In linking the two fronts, the INSS said: “Unless “Israel” is planning a preemptive strike on Hezbollah’s factories to produce precision-guided missiles, which would ensure a military confrontation, the “Israeli” army should divert all its efforts to rebuilding the deterrence against Hamas by inflicting significant blows on the terror group’s military wing. Although Gaza poses an immediate threat, it is less grave in scale than the northern front.”

There are two low-probability extreme scenarios concerning the Iranian nuclear program that could come to pass in the coming year. According to the INSS, “The first is Iran acquiring an atomic bomb in the North Korean model in an effort to negotiate from a position of power. The second scenario is the toppling of the “ayatollahs” regime, which by all indications is stable and capable of suppressing any public unrest.”

According to the INSS, “Israel” should reach clear understandings with the United States regarding the Iranian nuclear program, which will include intelligence cooperation, defining a clear red line in case Iran violates the nuclear agreement and certainly in case Tehran tries to acquire a nuclear bomb, and preparing a joint political and military plan to stop Iran in case that red line is crossed.

““Israel” must continue systematically preventing the transfer of quality weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, as long as the strategic conditions allow it. In addition, “Israel” must prepare to take action against Hezbollah’s accurate weapons facilities in Lebanon. Since such an attack would most certainly lead to a prolonged military confrontation with the group, “Israel” must also prepare the home front for a large-scale war in the north.”

Source: Ynet, Edited by website team