By Staff, Agencies

Lebanon should extend its full lockdown and 24-hour curfew another week as numbers of new COVID-19 cases remain "stubbornly high", Dr. Firass Abiad said Friday.

"The recommendation to extend the lockdown or not should be based on the latest COVID numbers and current hospital capacity," Abiad said in a thread of tweets. "Social and economic consequences of the decision should also be considered. In short, extending the lockdown for another week is preferable."

Abiad's position came shortly before the country's health committee was due to meet to decide on the next move when the current lockdown, in force since Jan. 14, expires Monday.

"Easing the lockdown before achieving a further reduction in transmission will only result in a rebound effect. The economy and people will find themselves facing the prospect of another long strict lockdown," Abiad, who is chief of Beirut's Rafik Hariri University Hospital and a member of the health committee. "Better extend further now, and cement our gains, than risk it all."

Abiad acknowledged that extending the lockdown would not be a popular decision, "but so too will result from a premature easing of restrictions."

He said the daily coronavirus cases had been decreasing, but then plateaued. The test positivity rate has remained "stubbornly high" at over 20 percent the reproductive number is still higher than expected at 0.85 percent.

"Easing the lockdown will result in reversing any downward trend. Numbers will quickly rebound," Abiad added.

He said the presence of the UK variant of the virus was almost certain, which explains the blunted response to the lockdown."

Lebanon has so far recorded more than 310,000 virus cases and nearly 3,500 deaths. The case fatality rate has risen 45 percent over the last three weeks alone, with Abiad attributing this in part to an overwhelmed healthcare system.

Lebanon is set to start receiving COVID-19 vaccines from mid-Feb and it plans to inoculate 80 percent of its nearly six million population before the end of the year.

"It is either a competent vaccine roll out, or bust," Abiad warned.