Avoiding Third Intifada… "`Israel`s` dilemma is complicated by the close proximity between `Israelis` and Palestinians.
source: International Herald Tribune, 25-8-2005.
By Marwan Bishara
summary: In the not so distant past, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon affirmed the importance of the Jewish settlements as "obstacles to war," and rejected a unilateral "Israeli" withdrawal from Gaza on the grounds that it would "only encourage terrorism and increase the pressure upon us." But like previous withdrawals from Sinai and South Lebanon, Sharon`s evacuation of settlers and soldiers after five years of the current intifada, demonstrates that, unfortunately, "Israel" cedes only under fire.
The "Israeli" government claims that its retreat is a sign of strength not weakness. And Sharon, the architect of the settlements, justifies their demolition primarily on demographic grounds: separating from a million and a half Gazans, who make up 20 percent of all Palestinians on 2 percent of historical Palestine. However, unless "Israel" was planning to annex Gaza, the numbers of its inhabitants is by and large irrelevant to "Israel`s" "Jewish democracy."
In reality, the settlements have become too costly in terms of surging security needs, growing instability and eroding army morale. In the words of one leading "Israeli" analyst, the Palestinians have "won by points." That`s why Gazans are celebrating the "disengagement" as a humiliating defeat for the occupation and victory for many years of resistance and steadfastness. As new popular Palestinian slogan goes: "Today Gaza, tomorrow Jerusalem (al-Quds) and the West Bank."
"Israel" is under legal and international pressure to continue its withdrawals beyond the four isolated settlements it has been evacuating in the West Bank. But Sharon is expected to exploit the Palestinians` preoccupation in the impoverished Gaza to freeze the peace process and to expand "Israel`s" control over the tenfold larger West Bank. If the Bush administration goes along with Sharon under the cover of a "State in Gaza first," the breakout of a third intifada is all but imminent.
The Palestinian armed factions are tending to transfer their operation into the West Bank in order to transform "Israel`s" Gaza nightmare into daily West Bank reality. According to the "Israeli" newspaper Haaretz, a third intifada "could speed up" "Israel`s" evacuation from 90 percent of the West Bank.
Sharon has warned of unprecedented retaliation if the Palestinians resort to military resistance. But "Israel`s" 38 years` use of force has simply failed to deter the Palestinians, and more force will only aggravate the cycle of violence. Furthermore, Sharon has been warned by his attorney general, Menachem Mazuz, that if the military retaliates against Palestinian population centers (there isn`t much else), "Israel" would be guilty of "war crimes."
"Israel`s" dilemma is complicated by the close proximity between "Israelis" and Palestinians, which renders its advanced conventional and nuclear capability practically obsolete. Instead, the balance of power in the minuscule territories is determined by mounting numbers of Palestinians ready to die for their homeland and a declining number of "Israelis" ready to shield the occupation project. Gaza is a living example of that reality.
Colonial powers stronger and more determined than "Israel" have all lost to weaker but highly motivated resistance movements, costing millions of lives. Like the defeat of French, British and American occupations, the trouncing of the "Israeli" occupation is only a matter of time.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Palestinian resistance - meaning the basic right to fight back against injustice - is motivated not by despair, but by the hope for freedom. Like other oppressed people, they see extremism in the pursuit of liberty as no vice and moderation in the defense of justice as no virtue, to paraphrase the late U.S. senator Barry Goldwater.
A couple of years ago, four former "Israeli" security service heads warned that "Israel" was "on the verge of catastrophe" as a result of the intifada. Their assessment was not a military one per se, rather a general one that encompassed the economic, moral and security spheres.
You can be sure that another uprising in the West Bank will do greater harm to "Israel" and the Palestinians than the previous two. Those who cannot stand the heat will leave first. My guess is, it will be "Israel". But with one important condition: Any Palestinian resistance must be limited to the West Bank - both in terms of scope and endgame - and balanced with an open hand for peaceful coexistence.
Unlike Gaza, South Lebanon and Sinai, the West Bank is "Israel`s" last and narrowest defense line. Its withdrawal from there could only be the culmination of international intervention and a torturous internal power struggle.
Palestinian resistance and international pressures are widening the rift in "Israeli" society between the secular, business-driven costal communities that flourish on stability, peace and open frontiers and the religious and extremist segments that thrive on conflict, tensions and the idea of a Greater "Israel".
"Israelis" who seek normality and prosperity for their country have already won the battle of Gaza. Now, they must act quickly to ensure that its evacuation is only a prelude to West Bank withdrawal in order to prevent the outbreak of another more deadly intifada.
-Marwan Bishara, a visiting lecturer at the American University of Paris, is the author of "Palestine/"Israel": Peace or Apartheid."
Source: The International Herald Tribune - August 25, 2005.
