Tick Tock Goes the Clock: ‘Israel’ Concerned with Hezbollah’s Current Power, i.e. Its “Existential Threat”

By Staff

"Whether a nuclear deal with Iran is signed or not, if the US mediator does not give Lebanon what it asked for in terms of its rights, we are heading toward an escalation — we are heading toward a problem," Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned in his latest televised address on Friday, adding that the US State Department mediating team led by Amos Hochstein is "still wasting time" which is "running out." 

In this respect, some analysts are unconvinced that an escalation by Hezbollah is a real possibility right now.

The Zionist occupation regime and Lebanon have had a years-long, ongoing dispute on who has the rights to the Palestinian-Lebanese maritime territories that contain natural gas fields in which the two sides have yet to agree on a border. The latest round of indirect negotiations has been held with the mediation of a US delegation led by US Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein, with no results yet.

In comments on the status quo, ‘Israeli’ Brig.-Gen. [res.] Amir Avivi, founder and CEO of the so-called ‘Israel’ Defense and Security Forum, told The Media Line that ‘Israel’ is seeing Hezbollah taking a more aggressive stance and, through that, trying to coerce ‘Israel’ into giving up crucial economic interests in the negotiations, specifically gas fields in the maritime territory.

Therefore, when Hezbollah thinks about confronting Tel Aviv, "‘Israel’ understands that it may face an existential threat," he said.

Hezbollah has a current power of over 100,000 missiles and mortars, Avivi claims.

For his part, Dr. Omer Dostri, a military strategy and national security expert, and a researcher at the ‘Jerusalem’ Institute for Strategy and Security, believes that one scenario in which Hezbollah could launch an ‘attack’ is if ‘Israel’ starts drilling gas from the Karish platform as planned for September, with no agreement yet signed with Lebanon. 

The Karish gas drilling platform lies in the disputed territorial waters between the ‘Israeli’-occupied Palestine and Lebanon.

Additionally, Avivi advises ‘Israel’ that it must not surrender to the threats and must continue the talks through the American mediator to find an acceptable solution. He says ‘Israel’ should “be ready to deal with Hezbollah if needed.”

According to Dostri, Hezbollah possesses approximately 45,000 short-range rockets that can travel distances of up to 40 km, not including mortar bombs, in addition to approximately 80,000 medium- and long-range rockets, dozens of which are accurate.

"Approximately 1,500 rockets will be launched each day of fighting on average from the territory of Lebanon," Dostri said citing ‘Israeli’ military estimations.

In addition, he went on to assume, Hezbollah is expected to use the Radwan Unit, which is a special ground maneuver force, whose mission has included penetrating the ‘Israeli’-occupied territory through tunnels, and attempts to take over ‘Israeli’ settlements to kidnap soldiers and disrupt supply lines or movement of the ‘Israeli’ occupation forces.

Hezbollah also owns a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles and explosive drones. On top of that, Hezbollah is expected to use advanced anti-tank and anti-ship missile launch systems, Dostri added.

According to the military expert, Hezbollah is the most serious fundamental threat to ‘Israel’ in the Middle East, and ‘Israel’ has taken some steps as preparation to counter any escalation with Hezbollah.