Source: Daily Star, 12-12-2008
By Andrew Wander

BEIRUT: US policy toward Lebanon has failed in its fundamental objectives of bolstering 'March 14' Forces politicians and weakening Hizbullah, and should be changed as soon as possible, according to a report to be published by an influential think-tank. The report, commissioned by the US-based Century Foundation, says that it is time for America to replace its "anemic and oftentimes counter-productive policies" of the past three years with a more pragmatic approach.
 
The report notes that while the US has been providing military equipment to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), the types of weapons it has supplied have been heavily influenced by consideration for "Israel's" security concerns.

As a result, the LAF has been unable to develop into a serious military force, and Hizbullah has been able to continue justifying maintaining its huge arsenal on the grounds that Lebanon has no alternative defense system.

The report recommends that two steps should be taken to curb Hizbullah's growing power in Lebanon: "First that the LAF not be bolstered in order to forcefully disarm Hizbullah and second, that the LAF credibly arrays itself in a defensive posture against 'Israel'."

To do this, the report argues, Washington should match its "escalating rhetoric concerning its 'strong' and supposedly 'unfettered' commitment to adequately arming the LAF," with tangible military support that would leave it equipped to deal with potential "Israeli" aggression.

An analysis of US military aid to Lebanon carried out by the report's author reveals that on a per capita basis, Lebanon receives less ongoing military aid from the US than Jordan.
The result of this contradiction between rhetoric and reality is that the "LAF remains effectively stuck in neutral," and Hizbullah is able to legitimately claim that it is the only force in Lebanon capable of facing the "Israeli" military.

The US, the report argues, should target the ideological framework upon which the Shiaa group justifies its arsenal by allowing the LAF to deploy defensively against potential "Israeli" threats.
A key part of this justification rests upon what Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has called the "bleeding wounds" - flashpoint issues between "Israel" and Lebanon that have potential to trigger another conflict.

The report identifies three main "bleeding wounds" - "Israel" occupation of Lebanese land, "Israeli" overflights of Lebanese territory, and the 'Jewish' (Zionist) state's refusal to give the coordinates of cluster bomb strikes from the 2006 summer war.

The report says that the US should use its influence to pressure "Israel" into resolving these "bleeding wound" issues as a part of a wider strategy designed to "undermine the rationale upon which Hizbullah's independent weaponry is based."

At the same time, the report urges the US to abandon its stated aim to prepare the LAF to forcibly disarm Hizbullah. Such a plan could encourage splits within the LAF, undermining its overall status within in the country.

Instead, the LAF should be built into a credible alternative to Hizbullah. This should be done with the both the US and "other pro-US states" supplying serious equipment and training to the army.

A strong LAF and the removal of the "bleeding wounds" would "serve as a timely instrument for publicly testing Hizbullah's commitment to its stated rhetoric," - namely that it maintains its arsenal as a result of the "Israeli" threat and the lack of a viable alternative to defend Lebanon and would be willing to disarm if it were no longer needed.

The report also identifies Lebanon's unique confessional political system as "main destabilizing factor facing the country," and urges the US to promote "fairer representation for the Shiaa community" to "call Hizbullah's 'bluff.'"

The US should also remove Sayyed Mohammad Hussein (Fadlallah)from its (so-called) "terrorist" list, the report states, arguing that his presence on the list is responsible for "preventing any meaningful dialogue" with an influential figure who has publicly stated his willingness to meet with US officials without precondition.

The report acknowledges that these policy reforms would not be easy for the US to implement, but warns that "as it currently stands, only Hizbullah is seeing its military power grow exponentially - and with no end in sight."

But this outcome is not inevitable. Lebanon currently has a "unique opportunity for domestic peace-building - one that, if properly cultivated by the United States, would significantly serve the national interests of both countries."

The report is one of a series commissioned by the Century Foundation as part of their Prospects for Peace Initiative, which focuses on Middle East conflicts that have the potential to threaten US security.