"Israel" must choose between bad and worse options

Source: Haaretz, 22-12-2008

The rocket barrages on communities (settlements) near the Gaza Strip, particularly since the official end of the ceasefire on Friday, have led "Israel" to officially change its line from "quiet in exchange for quiet" to open threats.

The Olmert-Barak-Livni trio has decided to respond, and the timing will depend on operational conditions; in other words, the "Israel" Air Force will go into action. The "Israel" Military Forces and Shin Bet security service assume that increased operations from the air will be met with heavier rocket fire from Hamas on targets farther from Gaza. The "Israel" Military Forces might then launch a ground operation.

Ground troops have not received operational orders, but on the home front, warning systems have been upgraded in communities (settlements) 30 to 40 kilometers from the border, in rocket range. That's the distance Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin discussed with the cabinet when he warned that Hamas rockets can reach the outskirts of Bir Sabaa.

These are upgraded Katyushas that have recently been smuggled into Gaza. Diskin told the ministers that Hamas wants a conflict with "Israel" for a limited time to force a renewed lull under more favorable conditions. Meanwhile, a number of Hamas leaders have gone underground in the Strip, out of fear of assassination by "Israel".

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert opened Sunday's cabinet meeting in 'Jerusalem' (al-Quds) by saying: "A responsible government does not rush into battle and does not evade it." The upcoming elections brought mutual recriminations to the surface during the meeting. Defense (War) Minister Ehud Barak called on Olmert to "restrain irresponsible chatter" by some ministers, meaning Kadima's Tzipi Livni and Vice Premier Haim Ramon.

"Israel's" leaders seem to be realizing their error of recent weeks vis-a-vis Hamas. Hamas concluded from "Israel's" declarations that we want peace and have no intention of taking over Gaza; that it is free to strike at the Negev as much as it wants because "Israel" is afraid of an entanglement.

According to leaks from al-Quds Sunday, a decision has been made for an extensive military action, and a ground operation is not out of the question. At this stage, "Israel" apparently prefers other options. First, the air force will go in, striking not only rocket-launching cells but also attempting to hit the manufacturers, suppliers and commanders. Targets might also include Hamas bases, offices, and if there's an escalation, assassinations of senior Hamas officials.

As for a ground operation, the question is how to get Hamas to go back to the understandings in place at the beginning of the cease-fire without risking all-out fighting that would begin with rockets on Ashdod and Bir Sabaa and end with the return of "Israeli" armor to Gaza.
A series of decisions - the disengagement in the summer of 2005, the agreement to allow Palestinian parliamentary elections in January 2006 (which Hamas won), and the cease-fire of June this year - all led to the current dilemma. "Israel" must now decide among a number of bad options.

A point the media has missed over the past few days is that most of the rockets are being launched by Islamic Jihad and smaller factions, which Hamas has stopped reining in. If Hamas goes into action, there could be 100 rockets a day instead of dozens.

Meanwhile, Hamas is leaving open the option of dialogue. On Sunday, two spokesmen for the organization in Gaza complained that Egypt had not asked for a discussion on extending the cease-fire. Egypt seems in a hurry to mediate between "Israel" and Hamas, perhaps hoping that if Hamas bleeds, it will reconsider its arrogant attitude toward Cairo.

Hamas also has a less-than-spectacular array of choices. Escalating rocket fire will put its leaders in "Israeli" sights. The Arab world will see Hamas as a "resistance" organization like Hizbullah but it will not be able to function. A renewed cease-fire without an upgrade will make Hamas appear to have knuckled under to the Zionists. "Israeli" defense (war) officials strongly believe that Hanieh and his people were unwillingly maneuvered into the current escalation by Khaled Meshal, Hamas' political leader in Damascus.