“Israel” Afraid: Hezbollah’s Kidnapping of Our Soldiers A Matter of Time, Sayyed Nasrallah’s Self-Confidence

Translated by Staff

“Hezbollah’s presence and its activities near the fence, the operational tolerance of the ‘Israeli’ army, and its failure to complete the deployment of technological gear created a situation where the kidnapping of soldiers was only a matter of time.” This is how “Israel’s” Foreign Affairs and War Committee described the situation along the northern frontier on the eve of the Second Lebanon War in a report summarizing the lessons learned.

It's hard not to compare those days 17 years ago to the current reality, especially after the emergence of videos showing masked gunmen patrolling the Lebanese side of the fence and monitoring “Israeli” territory, defiantly and fearlessly.

It is true that the security system made it clear the militants did not cross the Blue Line and did not pose a threat. However, the explanations are not only not reassuring but reinforce the feeling that the balance of deterrence is rapidly eroding, and not in favor of “Israel”.

The series of provocations by Hezbollah indicate [Sayyed Hassan] Nasrallah's growing self-confidence, which not only exacerbates his public threats but also increases tensions along the border with “Israel”. It is not at all certain that he is interested in war, but it is clear that [Sayyed] Nasrallah today is less wary about the possibility of deterioration into war.

[Sayyed] Nasrallah notes that there is an opportunity to improve the balance of deterrence against “Israel”. This comes amid the severe internal crisis plaguing “Israel”. In light of the containment approach of the “Israeli army”, which he views as evidence of the government's reluctance and fear of a military confrontation, and based on this assessment, he works within a gradual and systematic process to get rid of the restrictions that have been imposed on him over the years, and, incidentally, also to strengthen his political position in Lebanon.

His activity on the northern frontier serves his goal of creating a better and more effective starting point for a future confrontation with “Israel”, especially one that realizes his plans to infiltrate the occupied territories.

The way “Israel” has responded so far to Hezbollah's provocations has encouraged the group to carry on and even escalate the situation. Under the current circumstances, there is no choice but to take measures to make [Sayyed] Nasrallah curb his appetite.

“Israel” must continue to build the wall along the border and not tolerate provocations aimed at disrupting its activities.

It was right to install the security system to prepare specific measures, even if they are secret. This signals to [Sayyed] Nasrallah that “Israel” has run out of patience and reminds him and Lebanon of the price they paid in the previous adventure during the Second Lebanon War.

As with [Sayyed] Nasrallah's activities, there is also a risk of sliding into war over retaliatory measures, even if neither side wants it. We must be prepared for that as well.

The Foreign Affairs and Military Committee warned “against a recurrence of a situation in which a legitimate strategic political decision such as the policy of containment leads to paralysis and inaction in the army.”

It stressed that it was possible to apply a cautious tactical approach that does not involve a fundamental violation of the containment policy but is more effective on the northern border. These things are also true for the current reality.