Alma: Hezbollah’s Radwan Unit Is Capable of Invading the Galilee at Any Moment

By Staff, Agencies

As “Israel” still hasn’t woken up from the October 7 nightmare, its military establishment and assessments continue to warn of the horror coming from the Northern Front.

In this context, the so-called “Alma Research and Education center” chose to provide an analysis entitled: “Hezbollah’s Radwan unit is capable of carrying out an invasion of the Galilee at any given moment.”

According to the head of the center Tal Beeri, “The events of October 7 proved again that any physical or technological obstacle will inevitably be breached. It should be remembered that, unlike the Gaza Strip, along the border with Lebanon there are sections where the barrier has not yet been upgraded, which could make it even easier to penetrate.”

“The mostly mountainous terrain on the Lebanese border is more difficult to maneuver than the flat terrain on the border with the Gaza Strip, on the other hand, it allows for more concealed movement. Hezbollah is well acquainted with the terrain and knows how to take advantage of it,” Beeri added.

Acknowledging that Hezbollah’s element of surprise have been diminished after October 7, Alma wrote that “it is our assessment that even today, at any given time, if it so desires, Hezbollah can implement its operational plan to invade ‘Israeli’ territory with a smaller Radwan unit force and into a more limited area.”

It further mentioned that “In light of the fact that most of the ‘Israeli population’ living near the border has been evacuated, in our assessment, Hezbollah can focus on a limited area, with an emphasis on military zones and/or taking over the territory of a small number of communities.”

“Even if most of the Radwan operatives have distanced themselves from the border since the beginning of the war, in our assessment this does not neutralize their ability to fulfill their main objective. It is our assessment that the Radwan unit is continuing to collect intelligence near the border and is adjusting its operational plans,” it estimated.

Warning that the Hezbollah unit’s capability of the rocket and mortar arrays has not been affected, the intelligence center – specialized in making in-depth geopolitical knowledge about the Middle East- viewed that “Hezbollah’s short-range rocket and mortar arrays, which are a critical component in carrying out the first stage of the invasion into ‘Israeli’ territory, are fully capable and ready for operation in the immediate future.”

“In conclusion, the Radwan unit still poses a significant challenge for the ‘Israeli’ army and still poses a clear and present danger. As time passes and the war ends, the scope of army forces in the north will probably decrease significantly. The main mission of the Radwan unit was and still remains to penetrate into ‘Israeli’ territory and take over communities and geographical areas. This threat to ‘Israel’ has not passed and is relevant at any given time. Hezbollah only needs to decide when,” it cautioned.

And in attempt to answer the question, ‘From Where will Hezbollah Enter the Galilee?’, Alma proposed the following scenario of the invasion:

Stage 1– The geographic units in southern Lebanon are responsible for opening fire by means of massive rocket and mortar fire along the entire border, including firing into “Israel”. In addition, they are responsible for neutralizing surveillance devices along the border by means of sniper fire, exploding UAVs, suicide UAVs [under the responsibility of the air unit], and anti-tank fire.

Stage 2 – Along with the above attack and the neutralization of the surveillance devices, Radwan Unit operatives are expected to storm the barrier throughout the entire sector, breach the barrier at various points and by various means [powerful IEDs, and possibly even booby-trapped tunnels dug under the barrier].

Stage 3 – Radwan operatives will cross on foot and with vehicles [mainly motorcycles and ATVs] above ground into “Israel” and move towards the communities and military bases near the border. It is possible that some of the operatives, according to advance planning, will try to reach targets deep inside “Israel”.

The working assumption must consider that there are still attack tunnels that the “Israeli” army has not yet exposed, and if so, they will be utilized at this stage.

Stage 4 – Gaining control of bases and communities, executing killings, and taking hostages as bargaining chips. In addition, the transfer of ‘abductees’ to Lebanese territory, with an emphasis on soldiers.

Stage 5– Barricading, deploying and waiting for “Israeli” army forces while positioning anti-tank and light anti-aircraft squads and snipers.