IR Scholars Warn: U.S. Strikes on Iran Likely to Backfire on National Security

By Staff, Agencies

A new survey of international relations (IR) experts reveals deep concern over the United States' recent military action against Iran, warning it may ultimately undermine U.S. national security and political stability.

The U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites over the weekend — carried out without congressional approval — drew sharply mixed reactions. While Republican leaders backed President Trump’s decision, Democrats condemned it.

Iran responded on Monday by launching missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, escalating fears of a wider conflict.

In anticipation of these events, researchers from William & Mary’s Global Research Institute and the University of Georgia surveyed 753 IR scholars from June 18–22 on potential outcomes of a U.S. entry into the "Israeli" aggression on Iran.

Key Findings: Military Action Seen as Risky and Ineffective

A decisive 83% of experts said U.S. strikes would make the country less secure, with most predicting Iranian retaliation.

Many feared attacks on U.S. troops, cyberwarfare, and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — all of which have begun to materialize.

Despite viewing Iran as actively pursuing nuclear weapons, 83% of respondents opposed direct military action, favoring sanctions, cyber operations, and missile interceptions instead.

Support for a ground invasion or regime change was virtually nonexistent.

Predictions About Retaliation Prove Accurate

Respondents estimated a 68% chance of Iranian cyberattacks and a 66% chance of disruptions to maritime traffic — both scenarios now unfolding.

A missile strike on the U.S. base in Qatar and Iran’s parliamentary approval to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz confirmed expert expectations.

On global reactions, most predicted Russia would increase military aid to Iran and launch cyberattacks on the U.S.. China, by contrast, was expected to respond more passively, mainly offering humanitarian support.