CNN: US Intel Assessment Suggests Strikes on Iran Did Not Destroy Nuclear Sites

By Staff, Agencies

The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US intelligence assessment that was described by seven people briefed on it and reported by the CNN.

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the so-called “Defense” Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said.

The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear ambitions is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available. But the early findings are at odds with US President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also said on Sunday that Iran’s nuclear ambitions “have been obliterated.”

Two of the people familiar with the assessment said Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of the people said the centrifuges are largely “intact.” Another source said that the intelligence assessed enriched uranium was moved out of the sites prior to the US strikes.

“So, the [DIA] assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” this person added.

Meanwhile, The White House acknowledged the existence of the assessment but said they disagreed with it.

It is still early for the US to have a comprehensive picture of the impact of the strikes, and none of the sources described how the DIA assessment compares to the view of other agencies in the intelligence community.

However, the US is continuing to pick up intelligence, including from within Iran as they assess the damage.

"Israel" had been carrying out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities for days leading up to the US military operation but claimed to need the US’ 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs to finish the job. While US B-2 bombers dropped over a dozen of the bombs on two of the nuclear facilities, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment plant and the Natanz Enrichment Complex, the bombs did not fully eliminate the sites’ centrifuges and highly enriched uranium, according to the people familiar with the assessment.

Instead, the impact to all three sites — Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan — was largely restricted to aboveground structures, which were severely damaged, the sources said. That includes the sites’ power infrastructure and some of the aboveground facilities used to turn uranium into metal for bomb-making.

The "Israeli" assessment of the impact of the US strikes also found less damage on Fordow than expected.

On Tuesday morning, Trump repeated his belief the damage from the strikes was significant.

Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, the chairman emeritus of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, would not echo Trump’s claims that the Iranian program had been “obliterated” when pressed by CNN on Tuesday.

“I’ve been briefed on this plan in the past, and it was never meant to completely destroy the nuclear facilities, but rather cause significant damage,” McCaul told CNN, referring to the US military plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. “But it was always known to be a temporary setback.”

Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who has closely reviewed commercial satellite imagery of the strike sites, agreed with the assessment that the attacks do not appear to have ended Iran’s nuclear program.

“The ceasefire came without either “Israel” or the United States being able to destroy several key underground nuclear facilities, including near Natanz, Isfahan and Parchin,” Lewis said, referring to the ceasefire between “Israel” and Iran that Trump announced on Monday. Parchin is a separate nuclear complex near Tehran.

“These facilities could serve as the basis for the rapid reconstitution of Iran’s nuclear program.”

Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan of New York said on X on Tuesday that “Trump just cancelled a classified House briefing on the Iran strikes with zero explanation. The real reason? He claims he destroyed ‘all nuclear facilities and capability;’ his team knows they can’t back up his bluster and BS.”

As per reports, there have long been doubts about whether the US's bunker-buster bombs can effectively destroy Iran’s deeply buried nuclear sites, especially Fordow and Isfahan.

Notably, the US chose to strike Isfahan with Tomahawk missiles from a submarine instead of using a bunker-buster bomb, as the latter likely couldn't reach the site's deeply buried lower levels, one of the sources said.