French PM Bayrou Faces No-Confidence Vote

By Staff, Agencies

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to survive a no-confidence vote scheduled for Tuesday, but his political standing remains fragile just six months after his appointment.

Appointed by President Emanuel Macron in December 2024, Bayrou was tasked with restoring political stability after snap elections in mid-2024 backfired, weakening Macron’s centrist bloc and boosting Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, leaving the National Assembly deeply fragmented.

If the no-confidence motion passes, Macron may have to appoint a seventh prime minister, weakening his authority further and potentially prompting early legislative elections after July 8.

The Socialist Party [PS] introduced the no-confidence motion over failed pension reform talks, with leader Olivier Faure calling for Prime Minister Bayrou’s removal and urging for a leader more open to dialogue.

Bayrou dismissed the motion as a political maneuver, calling it a "joke" during an interview with RTL. He characterized the move as a symbolic gesture by the PS to demonstrate its opposition stance.

The no-confidence motion is unlikely to pass due to RN’s expected abstention, but the party may back future attempts to remove Bayrou, especially during the 2026 budget debate.

RN vice-president Sebastien Chenu signaled the possibility of fresh elections, stating, "Dissolution is necessary as soon as possible," and warned that the government's collapse could come "probably sooner than you think."

Bayrou criticized the prevailing political climate, questioning the commitment of rival parties to national progress. "Everyone is threatening, but who is taking care of the country's situation? What are the parties that are threatening a no-confidence vote doing to move the country forward?" he asked.

However, Marine Le Pen faces a fraud case appeal that could bar her from the 2027 presidential race, while rumored tensions with her protégé Jordan Bardella add to uncertainty over RN’s future leadership.

Eurasia Group analysts say Bayrou’s bid to form a stable majority by courting moderate leftists has failed. With PS support withdrawn, they estimate a 60% chance that RN and left-wing parties could unite to oust the government by autumn.