Barrack’s “Israeli”-Ink Deal: What’s the Lebanese Army’s Next Move?
By General Mounir Shehadeh
American pressure has succeeded in forcing the Lebanese government to cross a red line. Joint American-Arab pressure, cloaked in threats of disaster and dire consequences, compelled the inclusion of the clause “monopoly of arms by the state” with a fixed deadline for implementation in last Tuesday’s cabinet session. This was approved despite the absence of four Shia ministers and the objection of a fifth.
In the following session, the government signed the paper presented by Mr. Tom Barrack—a document written in “Israeli” ink. It contains conditions, restrictions and demands, along with consequences if Lebanon fails to comply. Meanwhile, if “Israel” fails to comply, Lebanon is granted the right to file a complaint with the UN Security Council.
The government tasked the Lebanese Army with submitting an implementation plan by the end of this month, to be executed by the end of the current year.
This signing came after the Shia bloc withdrew from the session, having tried—unsuccessfully—to persuade the government to reverse its earlier decision regarding the monopoly of arms.
The Resistance in Lebanon issued a statement declaring it would consider the decision void. In a televised interview, MP Hajj Mohammad Raad, head of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, stated that the weapons would not be surrendered, bluntly saying: “Pave the sea”.
Thus, Lebanon has crossed the red line under international pressure, with the backing of a Lebanese faction that has openly claimed to have 15,000 fighters ready for civil war—and assurances that if such a war breaks out, “Israel” will intervene on its behalf, as occurred in the battles of Suwayda in Syria.
Officials from this faction have also said that if the Resistance does not disarm, “Israel” will take action from the south, while Syria will act from the east and north.
The hot potato is now in the hands of the Lebanese Army—whose ranks include many soldiers whose siblings or relatives are martyrs of the Resistance. The Army must present its plan to the government by month’s end.
What will that plan look like? What will be the mechanism for implementation, especially when the Resistance categorically refuses to surrender its arms? Will the Lebanese Army enforce the decision by force? Would that mean a confrontation between the Resistance and an army that has long stood alongside it in resisting “Israel”?
Do those who dragged Lebanon into this quagmire realize the consequences if we reach that point?
I know that Lebanese Army Commander General Rodolphe Heikal possesses the wisdom and foresight to avoid pulling the army into such a situation. He would never allow it to be said that civil war returned under his leadership. I am confident that his plan will lay out the dangers this decision poses to Lebanon as a whole—including to the cohesion of the military institution.
So will the government issue an order to enforce it militarily? And who would sign such an order?
The President of the Republic will not accept a new civil war breaking out during his term—would he approve such a decision?
I propose a logical political alternative:
Given that the US deadline to resolve the Resistance’s arms issue is December 31, 2025, the government should demand that the US pressure “Israel” to withdraw from Lebanon, end its violations and aggressions, and release all detainees immediately. Only then should the Resistance sit with the President to discuss a plan ensuring that its arms operate under state authority—where decisions of war and peace rest with the state.
If this fails by the deadline, let “Israel” resume its war on Lebanon.
The Resistance’s public is on edge, with signs of possible street mobilization—something its leadership has thus far avoided. Who can guarantee control of the streets once implementation begins? And where might this all lead?
Lebanon now stands at a sensitive, dangerous and decisive juncture due to a decision hastily made under insidious foreign pressure. From now until the Army submits its plan, intensive contacts are underway among various officials, in hopes of extinguishing the fuse before it ignites.
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