China’s Birthrate Drops 17%, Population Declines Again

By Staff, Agencies

China’s population declined for the fourth straight year in 2025, with the birthrate hitting a record low despite government efforts to boost fertility.

The population dropped to 1.405bn in 2025 as births fell 17% to 7.92M—the lowest since 1949—and deaths rose to 11.31M as per the National Bureau of Statistics [NBS], with demographer Yi Fuxian, noting birth levels were “roughly the same… as in 1738.”

Despite Beijing’s new childcare subsidies and plans to cover childbirth costs, young Chinese say having children remains too expensive amid high unemployment and slow economic growth.

Raising a child in China costs 538,000 yuan—over 6 times the per capita GDP—far higher than in the US or Japan, with urban costs even steeper.

Decades of the one-child policy have shrunk China’s childbearing population and normalized small families, while new taxes on condoms fuel concerns the birthrate will keep falling.

China’s 2025 death rate hit 8.04 per 1,000—the highest since 1968—as the population shrinks and ages. Over-60s now make up 23% of residents, and by 2035 they could total 400M, straining pensions even as retirement ages rise.

Marriages in China fell 20% in 2024 to 6.1M, the steepest drop on record, signaling weaker future birthrates. A May 2025 rule allowing couples to marry anywhere boosted weddings in Q3 by 22.5%, as authorities push to promote marriage and childbearing to counter the long-term effects of the one-child policy.

China’s rapid urbanization—68% in 2025, up from 43% in 2005—has made raising children costlier, adding to demographic pressures. Policymakers plan to spend around 180bn yuan [$25.8bn] this year to boost births.

Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the nationalist tabloid the Global Times, suggested that provincial leaders should be evaluated not just on GDP but also on regional birthrates, highlighting the urgency of China’s demographic crisis. The country’s fertility rate is around 1.0—well below the replacement level of 2.1—and the pool of women of reproductive age is expected to fall by over two-thirds to under 100M by 2100.