"Israel" fears Hizbullah´s using of advanced anti-aircraft missiles in the near future
Source: Haaretz, 26-5-2009
By Amos Harel
The defense (war) establishment is concerned that Hizbullah will try to smuggle advanced anti-aircraft missiles into Lebanon in the near future - yet another reason for the rising tension on the "Israel"-Lebanon border. "Israel" has made it clear in past statements that it will consider such a development as crossing a red line, which might necessitate preventative measures.
It is believed that Hizbullah would like to deploy SA-8 batteries in Lebanon. Such weapons could pose a threat to "Israel" Air Force jets flying over the country. In recent years, the IAF has conducted regular flights over Lebanon, part of reconnaissance and intelligence missions linked to assessing Hizbullah's military capabilities. In threatening the IAF, the Shi'ite group is hoping to alter Lebanon's military balance of power vis-a-vis "Israel".
In the past year, the Arab press has reported several times that Hizbullah would like to deploy anti-aircraft missiles on Lebanon's mountaintops, thereby checking the IAF's freedom of operations.
The Soviet-made missiles are part of Syria's military arsenal, and Hizbullah fighters have received training on their use, inside Syrian territory. To date Syria and Hizbullah have refrained from deploying such weapons in Lebanon. Syria remains the main channel through which arms are transferred to Hizbullah - a process that has been expedited since the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
A year ago, tensions flared when "Israel" suspected that Hizbullah was planning to move the missiles into Lebanon and deploy them on the mountains. "Israel" relayed messages to both Syria and Hizbullah, through several channels, warning that it would consider launching air strikes against the convoys delivering the weapons, if they were brought into Lebanon. Then-prime minister Ehud Olmert and Defense (War) Minister Ehud Barak hinted publicly that these weapons would "upset the [existing] balance" and that "Israel" would not tolerate such a development. It seemed that Hizbullah got the message.
However, in recent weeks concerns have resurfaced about the missiles being moved to Lebanon. "Israel" has once again issued a warning through various channels. The intelligence community believes that in the wake of the June 7 elections to the Lebanese parliament, Hizbullah will once again try to move and deploy the missiles. In so doing, the group would be attempting a show of force. Hizbullah has consistently been trying to increase its hold on Lebanon, which it believes will only become stronger after the elections.
