Airlines Face Jet Fuel Crunch As War On Iran Disrupts Supply Chains

By Staff, Agencies

The summer travel outlook is already under strain, but conditions could worsen further. Alongside rising fares and fees linked to war on Iran, airlines in Europe and Asia—many dependent on imported jet fuel—are now facing possible fuel shortages, increasing the risk of flight cancellations and schedule cuts.

The US faces no immediate jet fuel shortage, but global tightness is pushing up prices, prompting airlines to cut low-fare and unprofitable flights, likely raising US airfares this summer.

Even if a US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, airlines are already locked into summer planning and pricing. United, for instance, has cut its schedule by about 5% over the next six months.

Airlines and passengers are unlikely to see relief until well into summer as normal oil and jet fuel supplies take months to restore. “It’s going to take until at least July,” said Kpler analyst Matt Smith, adding that “even that may be optimistic.”

A potential jet fuel shortage is driving up airline costs and fares, with fuel the second-largest expense for carriers.

US airlines are already seeing sharply higher prices, with Delta warning of up to $2 billion in extra costs and United projecting as much as $11 billion if conditions persist, while some leisure fares have surged over 70%.

Although the US is a major fuel producer, global supply disruptions—especially from the Strait of Hormuz closure—are tightening markets in Europe and Asia. With key exporters affected and Asian limits on shipments rising, analysts warn relief could take weeks even if the strait reopens soon.

Rising fuel costs could hit low-cost airlines hardest, with Spirit Airlines—already bankrupt twice in 18 months—warning that higher fuel prices could derail its recovery and even push it toward liquidation.

Analysts also warn weaker carriers may default or cut aircraft, shrinking the supply of cheap seats.

Major airlines are already trimming less profitable routes, meaning fewer available seats and higher fares across the board.

United’s CEO said unprofitable flights are being cut because they “can’t cover the cost of fuel,” signaling broader upward pressure on ticket prices.