Iran Could Gain $500B from Strait of Hormuz If US Withdraws

By Staff, Agencies

Tehran could generate up to $500 billion in revenue from the Strait of Hormuz over the next few years if the US withdraws, according to Reuters' Hugo Dixon, underscoring the significant economic stakes amid the ongoing US‑"Israel" war on Iran.

As the situation unfolds, the strait, a strategic chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits, has become central to regional calculations.

Furthermore, Dixon states that control of the Strait of Hormuz would allow Iran to impose transit tolls, potentially formalizing an embryonic system already hinted at in recent shipping incidents.

In line with this, Trump's Gulf policy could inadvertently strengthen Tehran, with Iran charging up to $2 million per vessel, potentially earning $110 billion annually from oil transit alone.

Dixon suggests that if the US withdraws without a formal agreement, Iran could gain leverage to capitalize on the Strait of Hormuz while regional producers remain reliant on its control.

Looking at past trends, before the war, 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily. While some Gulf countries can divert oil via pipelines, about 10 million barrels remain trapped in the Gulf.

Dixon further notes that, with crude prices at $60 per barrel, Gulf states could face annual losses of $200 billion under Iranian control, as Tehran could capture a significant share of this revenue through tolls until alternative routes are developed.

Moreover, Dixon estimates Iran could earn $100 billion annually from oil and $20 billion from gas, with tolls totaling $350 billion from oil and $140 billion from gas over a few years.

While Gulf states seek alternative pipelines, Iran holds short-term leverage due to infrastructure timelines. Tehran's strategy balances revenue maximization with stabilizing global oil prices to avoid international intervention.

Ultimately, the US‑"Israel" war has elevated the Strait’s significance, with its control shaping future global energy flows.