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US intelligence Report: Syrian Army Loyal to Al-Assad, Unlikely to Turn On
11months ago US President Barak Obama and his allies from moderate Arab countries predicted that the Syrian regime's days are numbered.
However, recent US intelligence reports suggested that the Syrian leader commands a formidable army that is unlikely to turn on him, an inner circle that has stayed loyal and Syrian elite that still supports his rule.
While intelligence officials would not be drawn on a timeline for the regime's possible collapse, their assessment hinted at a continuing campaign lasting several months, if not longer.
Acknowledging that "food prices recently doubled, unemployment rose, and refined fuel products ran out," the US intelligence reports claimed that "a worsening economy could drive Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power.
However, intelligence information pointed out that "there have been no mass protests over food or fuel shortages or any discernible slowing in military activity because of a lack of supplies."
The report further shed light on the fact "that none of the defectors are regarded as part of al-Assad's inner circle and not all of the defectors have joined the opposition."
"Nor are there indications of the broader Syrian elite abandoning their support for their leader. That includes not just al-Assad's Allawite clan, but the minority Christians, Kurds and Druze," the report added.
Intelligence analysts have concluded that "the disorganized Syrian opposition is providing little challenge to the regime, with political leaders of the Syrian National Council proving more apt at picking ego-driven fights among themselves than working as a team."
"The self-styled Syrian Free Army is made up of a ragtag "Star Wars" bar of disparate local groups," they said.
Admitting that Syrian opposition fighters are arm themselves by seizing weapons from military warehouses, staging raids on army outposts or smuggling the weapons in, the report clarified that "rebel army has thus far rejected the political leadership of the rebel political movement."
The US intelligence report further highlighted that "Syrian army is highly professional, 330,000-man army plus reserves that was built and trained to invade "Israel"."
"While under strain, it is nowhere near collapse," the officials said.
Adding details to testimony by top government officials this week, the intelligence officials said "Syria has hundreds of anti-aircraft artillery batteries and thousands of shoulder-fired missiles, making up for their lack of technical sophistication through sheer numbers."
Source: AFP, Edited by moqawama.org
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