"Israel" Missed The Boat The Now Seen Hostile `US-"Israel"-EU` Package Faces An Axis Of Defiance

Source: The Jordan Times, 8-2-2006
By Hasan Abu Nimah
A new axis is taking shape in our region and it is not made up of rickety regimes that the US can knock over very easily. Despite US boasting of "progress" in its proclaimed campaign to "democratize" the Middle East and usher in US and "Israel"-friendly "moderate" governments, the most striking development is the emergence of an interconnected circle of stubborn, determined and defiant forces which includes Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, and Iran under the leadership of President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad.
A key "Israeli" demand adopted by the US and EU in recent years is that Hizbullah disarm. But as a condition of returning to their seats around the Cabinet table, Hizbullah ministers successfully convinced Lebanon`s government to recognize that their organization is a "resistance" movement, not a "militia". The difference is crucial, since as a "militia", they were supposed to disarm in accordance with UN Resolution 1559 which is silent about "resistance" groups. Hizbullah made the case that resistance is legitimate as long as there is military occupation of any part of Lebanese territory. For Lebanon`s government this was a clever strategy to avoid a damaging and perhaps unwinnable confrontation with Hizbullah without appearing to be in breach of the resolution. Thus, Hizbullah is becoming more cemented within the Lebanese system without succumbing to any of the foreign demands.
In a speech last Friday, Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah staunchly defended Iran and Hamas while condemning the hypocrisy of the US the EU and the continued aggression of "Israel". It was clear that Nasrallah drew enormous encouragement from the stunning Hamas victory, as he sounded triumphant with the recognition that his own organization had secured.
The Hamas victory signaled the rise of another, equally tough to crack, force which puts an end to an extended era of comfort and complacency on the part of the stewards of the so-called "peace process", based on the belief that arrangements such as Oslo and the roadmap, enthusiastically accepted by the Palestinian Authority, would be the framework for forcing Palestinians into a capitulation that would legitimize the status quo of "Israeli" domination and colonization. Hamas too has obviously been learning from Hizbullah, as its leaders become more sophisticated politicians who know how to speak to the people in the region and to the West.
While the plan was to push for the Palestinian elections to absorb Hamas in the political container of the subservient and powerless Palestinian Authority, thus diluting its status as an independent resistance group as a first step towards disarming it altogether, the election outcome may herald the exact opposite. Hamas ended up with indisputable democratic legitimacy, totally dislodging and discrediting the PA as incompetent, corrupt and defeatist.
By no means should this be seen as the start of the usual democratic process of alternation in power, as might be the case in a normal, not occupied and colonized country. Rather, it marks the end of the road the PLO embarked upon 13 years ago.
Hamas has not wavered in the face of mounting pressure and threats to cut off financial assistance to destitute Palestinians to adopt the same compliant stances of the discredited Fateh-led PA. Hamas` post-election position was clearly spelled out in articles by leader Khaled Mishaal (The Guardian) and deputy leader Musa Abu Marzouk (The Washington Post), which both appeared on Jan. 31, 2006. Both men rejected any possibility of recognizing the right of "Israel" to exist as a precondition for peace or of renouncing their right to continued resistance while occupation persists. All they offered was to negotiate a long-term truce in return for realizing and regaining Palestinian rights.
Those who hoped that Hamas could quickly be domesticated are disappointed, as are those who thought that pressure on Iran and Syria would do the same, and lead to Hizbullah being disarmed.
As for Iran, Western powers claim that it can`t be trusted with a nuclear programme because it once deceived the world about it. The nuclear weapons programmes of "Israel", India and Pakistan were also built up behind cloaks of deception, so this cannot be the issue. Iran has for long been targeted as a result of its hostile position towards "Israel". The fuss about the nuclear programme is directly linked to that. What the West refuses to address is that if any country has a rational case to seek nuclear weapons, it is Iran. Those who crow about nuclear weapons must show they are serious by dealing comprehensively with the nuclear arms race started in the region first by "Israel", with the help of Great Britain and France, and then by India and Pakistan.
But that doesn`t seem likely and it is very difficult to foresee how this confrontation can end well. If Iran is attacked by the US or "Israel", it has said it will retaliate and there is little reason to doubt that. It has economic and military means. The results could be catastrophic, not just for Iran but for the West. Oil prices might rise to crippling levels, and through its allies there, Iran can exacerbate the situation in Iraq making an already tenuous situation unbearable for the United States.
The growing anger in the region against the US, the EU and "Israel", who are more and more viewed as one hostile package, will only turn into more support for Hizbullah, Hamas and similar movements. Hence the dilemma with respect to all the targeted parties is that further confrontation will improve rather than weaken their position, as it will plunge the US and EU further into crisis. All this will constitute a true obstacle to an Arab-"Israeli" peace, perhaps for generations to come.
The final conclusion is that the current changes have ended any possibility of a settlement on the basis of the current formulas. For that, the US and "Israel" are responsible for always believing that they could control and manipulate the PLO and weak, "moderate" Arab states and push for more concessions while giving nothing in return. For any negotiations to happen now there will be new terms of reference much harder and much less favorable to "Israel". The "Israelis", with American encouragement, have always mocked the Palestinians for "never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity". It is the Palestinians` turn to say the same thing to "Israel".