Electoral Battles in Metn, Koura Simmering

Source: Al-Manar TV, 18-3-2009
Political and electoral rhetoric is escalating only weeks before the Lebanese decide on their new representatives.

The March 14 bloc and the opposition have been gradually promoting their candidates and, therefore, they have been engaged in a rhetorical race; the usual rhetoric.

But what is attracting attention is the crystallizing discord within the March 14 bloc, whose claims of unity of ranks have been questioned.
In contrast with the March 14 camp, the opposition has been maintaining balance and appears to be studying its every move on the road to June 7 elections.

Change and Reform (of MP Michel Aoun) MP Abbas Hashem expected more discord among the poles of the March 14 bloc "because they do not have political statures in their milieus." Speaking at a political forum in Beirut's southern suburb, Hashem emphasized that only positive surprises for the opposition will come out in the upcoming elections.

So far, the Metn precinct has been in the forefront of districts that are likely to witness fierce electoral battles.

There, the prospects of Aoun's electoral list to win are rising especially as a rival list to be formed by MP Michel Murr and Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel has been suffering lots of pangs.

THE COMPLICATIONS

Murr is, in a way or another, allied with the Armenian Tashnag party whose voters can dramatically change the outcome of elections in Metn. Murr has also managed to make an understanding with the Phalange party who is at odds with the Tashnag party. On the other hand, the Phalange party is in the same March 14 alliance with State Minister Nassib Lahoud who is the historical foe of Murr.

Murr and Gemayel are willing to leave the Armenian seat vacant for the Tashnag party (MP Hagop Pakradounian) that would only accept to join Murr's list if his allies promise to keep Armenian seats in other electoral districts vacant for it. Moreover, the Armenian party promised Murr to vote solely for him, but not for the entire list as Tashnag is allied with Aoun's FPM.
Six of the 128 seats in parliament are reserved for Armenians.

Lahoud, Gemayel's ally, expressed resentment at excluding him from forming the Metn list. He favors a closed list for the "loyalty bloc" including an Armenian candidate (Minister of State Jean Ogassapian). He firmly rejects "importing candidates from outside the Metn to conduct this battle." "I only participate in an electoral list which I have a role in forming. I will not join any list that I did not contribute in forming," the minister stressed early this week. "When did Lahoud take part in preparing winning lists; he lost the last elections and won as an independent in the elections before," Murr retorted in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat Wednesday.

TASHNAG TO REVEAL DECISION SOON

Tashnag leader Hovik Makhtarian revealed that the party had reached a clear decision regarding alliances in the upcoming elections, as well as cooperation with Future leader MP Saad Hariri and MP Michel Murr. Makhtarian said that he only had a single meeting with Hariri, but declined to reveal the party's decision. He added that his party's central committee had discussed Hariri's proposal that includes, according to him, a political and an electoral part. According to media reports, Hariri had proposed to give Tashnag four seats in the three districts of Metn, Zahle and Beirut. Makhtarian refused to disclose the proposal through the media before informing the concerned parties of the party's decision in the next couple of days.

The Tashnag party has announced that it is still politically and electorally committed to MP Aoun, and that it will vote solely for Murr, regardless of the outcome of negotiations with the Future Movement.

MORE COMPLICATIONS IN METN

Aside from the Armenian candidate and the Lahoud-Murr row, the Lebanese Force of Samir Geagea, also Gemayels allies in the March 14 bloc, are still insisting on Edie Abillamaa as their candidate in Metn. Murr unwaveringly refuses the LF candidate and wants his own, Pierre Ashqar, on the list.

KOURA AND THE PHALANGE PARTY QUESTION

Also in Koura, north of Lebanon, discord within the March 14 bloc has clearly emerged. Koura is a Christian district with 3 Catholic seats.
Once more, the Phalange party finds itself in front of a complicated formula with the aim of excluding it from the list of its allies in the March 14 camp. Hariri's Future movement currently has two seats, MP Farid Mekari and MP Nicolas Ghosn and the third seat is occupied by Lebanese Forces MP Farid Habib.
Speaking to the Tayyar.org site, Phalange party candidate in Koura Jean Mfarraj stated that the electoral battle in the districts was still ambiguous. Mfarraj however found it very odd to seek to exclude a candidate from an elite Christian Party like the Phalange party for Hariri's Future Movement candidates. The Future Movement, the Phalange party and the LF are allies in the March 14 bloc.
"Most of the residents of Koura are wondering about this as well," he told the internet site.
Mfarraj however stressed he will run for elections even without an agreement with the Future Movement.

It seems that this was not the first attempt by allies to remove Phalange party candidates from March 14 lists for the benefit of other candidates.
Gemayel said in a press conference on Tuesday at the Lebanese Embassy in Kuwait that "as much as we are interested in solidarity with our allies within the March 14 alliance, we are adamant to be represented in parliament. We hope our allies will respect this, and the alliance will be fruitful and beneficial for everyone."

On the other hand the opposition has a list of three candidates in Koura, Fayez Ghosn from the Marada party of Suleiman Franjieh, Salim Saadeh from the Syrian Socialist National Party and an undisclosed candidate from the Free Patriotic Movement.

Like Metn, Koura is likely to witness a fierce electoral battle whether between the March 14 bloc and the opposition or between candidates from the same loyalty bloc. According to analysts, three lists -two for the loyalty bloc and one for the opposition - in Koura would make it much easier for the opposition to win.