The Libyan Crisis: A Decade of Fragmentation and Proxy Wars Historical Roots of the Conflict

By Mohamad Hammoud

Lebanon – The Libyan crisis, now nearing its second decade, remains one of the most complex conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa. It began with the so-called 2011 Arab Spring protests that overthrew Muammar Gaddafi, who ruled for over 40 years. Initially, this change sparked hopes for democracy and national unity, but Libya quickly fragmented along regional, ideological, and tribal lines, leading to instability.

Following Gaddafi's fall, Libya held its first elections in 2012, forming the General National Congress [GNC]. However, political divisions grew, especially between Islamist factions and secular groups. By 2014, these tensions had escalated into a civil war between two rival governments: the internationally recognized House of Representatives [HoR] based in Tobruk and the Islamist GNC in Tripoli.

To end the conflict, the United Nations brokered the Libyan Political Agreement in 2015, establishing the Government of National Accord [GNA] in Tripoli as a unifying authority. However, this agreement failed to bring lasting peace, as General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army [LNA] rejected the GNA's legitimacy and launched a military campaign to seize Tripoli in 2019, renewing warfare.

By 2022, Libya's political landscape was again fractured, with two rival governments: the internationally recognized Government of National Unity [GNU] in Tripoli, led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, and the eastern Government of National Stability, led by Osama Hammad and controlled by the LNA. This divided governance structure continues to fuel instability as armed factions compete for control amid foreign influences.

Why Are Multiple Factions Fighting?

The Libyan conflict is driven by intertwined political, tribal, ideological, and economic factors. At its core, there is a struggle for political legitimacy between the UN-backed GNA in Tripoli and the HoR allied with Haftar's LNA, both vying for control of state institutions and Libya's vital oil wealth. This contest is further complicated by tribal and regional rivalries, as militias align with local clans, fracturing the country into competing power centers.

Integral to this power struggle is control over Libya's rich oil resources, which remain a critical driver of the conflict. Rival factions and their foreign backers fiercely contest oil fields and export terminals, knowing that dominance over these assets ensures political leverage and economic survival.

The divide is further deepened by ideological tensions, with Islamist groups linked to the Muslim Brotherhood clashing against secular nationalist and military forces. Moreover, the proliferation of militias with shifting loyalties weakens central authority, leading to frequent clashes over territory and influence. Together, these factors perpetuate Libya's enduring cycle of violence and fragmentation.

Foreign Backers and Their Strategic Interests

Libya has become a proxy battlefield for regional and global powers pursuing distinct strategic goals. The United Arab Emirates [UAE] and Egypt back Haftar, motivated by their desire to suppress Islamist movements, which they view as threats to their regimes. They perceive the GNA's ties to Muslim Brotherhood-linked factions as destabilizing, which aligns with their broader goal of suppressing Islamist influence in the region. Similarly, Russia supports Haftar, driven by its ambition to expand its influence in North Africa. On the ground, Russian private military contractors-most notably the Wagner Group-play a key role as Moscow seeks to secure Libya's energy resources and gain strategic access to the Mediterranean.

Opposing them, Turkey and Qatar support the Government of National Accord [GNA], aiming to increase their influence in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. One of Turkey's strategic objectives is to secure favorable maritime boundaries for energy exploration, a goal further advanced by its military support. The use of Turkish drones and troops was crucial in repelling Khalifa Haftar's assault on Tripoli from 2019 to 2020, effectively shifting the momentum of the conflict.

Meanwhile, France, while publicly supporting the UN peace process, has quietly backed Haftar due to counterterrorism concerns and economic interests in Libya's oil and infrastructure. Italy, Libya's former colonial ruler, supports the GNA mainly to safeguard its energy interests and curb migrant flows across the Mediterranean.

Though not a direct combatant, “Israel” has quietly engaged in the conflict through intelligence and military cooperation with Haftar's LNA. This cooperation fits within a broader regional partnership involving “Israel”, Egypt and the UAE, united by concerns over Turkey's growing influence and Islamist groups in North Africa. “Israeli” intelligence agencies, notably Mossad, reportedly supplied Haftar's forces with advanced equipment such as night-vision goggles, sniper rifles and tactical training, strengthening his position against the Turkish-backed GNA.

Controversial Migration Policies and Humanitarian Concerns

The humanitarian dimension of Libya's conflict is deeply troubling, especially regarding migrants and refugees. The Trump administration reportedly planned to deport migrants to Libya despite well-documented human rights abuses. Court filings revealed detainees from the Philippines, Vietnam, Lao and Mexico were notified of expulsion to Libya, while one Laotian detainee was told he would be sent to Saudi Arabia.

This deportation plan was blocked by a federal judge who ruled it would violate protections against sending migrants to countries where they face persecution. Both Libyan governments, the GNU in the west and Haftar's administration in the east-denied agreeing to accept deportees from the US Human Rights Watch has condemned Libya's detention centers as "hellholes" where migrants endure torture, sexual assault and unlawful killings. The US State Department's reports acknowledge Libya's "harsh and life-threatening prison conditions," making such deportations highly controversial.

Conclusion

A fragile-future Libya remains trapped in a cycle of conflict fueled by internal divisions and external interference. Its strategic location, vast oil wealth and migration gateway make it a focal point for regional and global powers. Although the 2020 ceasefire offered temporary respite, the underlying causes-competing factions, foreign meddling and unresolved political disputes-continue to destabilize the country. Without a unified government, disarmament of militias and genuine international cooperation, Libya's path to peace remains uncertain.