Report: US Preparing to Drive A Deep Stake into South Caucasus

By Staff, Agencies

A recent report from the Spanish outlet Periodista Digital made waves by claiming that Armenia may be preparing to hand over control of a strategic corridor in Syunik province to an American private military company.

If true, the consequences will be profound: A Western security actor entering a sensitive Eurasian region, diminished Armenian sovereignty, a shift in the strategic calculus of Iran, Russia, China, and Turkey, and a serious realignment in the South Caucasus.

The Armenian government denied the report, but it's plausible. Over the past year, the US has expanded its presence in Armenia through a Strategic Partnership Charter, border reforms, and growing security cooperation—signaling a long-term geopolitical move under the guise of technical aid.

The Syunik corridor is central to this dynamic. Iran sees it as a gateway to the Caucasus, Russia as a buffer for its interests, and China as a potential Belt and Road link. US involvement, even indirect, would be seen by all as a strategic provocation.

Moscow would see it as proof of its pushout from the South Caucasus, Tehran as further encirclement, and Beijing as risk to long-term logistics. France would lose ground to a deeper US-Turkish alignment. Each actor would adjust, weakening the fragile regional balance.

For Turkey, this shift could realize long-held ambitions: A Western-secured Syunik corridor offering direct access to Azerbaijan and Central Asia, advancing Turkish goals while avoiding accusations of coercion under the cover and legitimacy of American involvement.

A US-linked private military presence would shift regional risk calculations. Without formal deals or deployments, contracts and programs would exert real influence.

The South Caucasus is one of the few regions where major powers operate in parallel without direct confrontation. This balance holds because each respects the cost of escalation. A new global player entering changes these calculations.

This report matters because, even if inaccurate, it reflects current US trends: assertive engagement via nontraditional means to shape the region without formal conflict. Such moves risk backlash, as strategic actions seen as stabilization may be viewed as disruption—especially by nuclear and regional powers, where perception drives policy.

The logic of great-power competition that has shaped recent years of international security policy has now reached the South Caucasus. The form is quieter – conducted through infrastructure, contracts, and influence – but the stakes remain high.

In this environment, smoke should not be ignored. It may not always mean fire. But it always means heat – and someone is trying to raise the temperature.