Europe’s Alarm Bell Rings as Washington Snoozes

By Mohamad Hammoud

While the US Looks Inward, Russian “Gray-Zone” Attacks Force a Wary Continent to Rearm.

As Russia probes NATO’s eastern defenses with subtle provocations, a deep unease is seizing Europe. The continent is preparing for potential conflict while the United States is distracted by domestic crises. This divergence leaves European allies questioning the reliability of the American security umbrella, a cornerstone of post-war stability.

“Not Peace, Not War”: A Continent on Edge

The growing anxiety was captured by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who warned that “we are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either”. CNN reported that this shattered sense of security stems from a surge of airspace violations by suspected Russian drones and warplanes, coupled with cyberattacks.

For decades, Europe considered large-scale war unthinkable. Now, AP News reported that multiple NATO countries—including Poland, Denmark and Norway—have scrambled jets or shut down airports due to repeated drone incursions believed to originate from Russia.

Moscow’s Shadow Strategy

The pattern suggests a larger game at play. NATO officials told The Guardian that Russia appears to be pursuing a “gray-zone” strategy—blurring the line between peace and war through disinformation, cyber sabotage, and drone incursions. Analysts say this gradual escalation is deliberate. Kirsten Fontenrose, a former White House security official, told CNN that Russia is “boiling the European frog,” slowly increasing pressure without triggering a NATO response.

According to AP News, this campaign has included attacks on civilian infrastructure, including mysterious blackouts and undersea cable disruptions that Western intelligence agencies suspect are Russian in origin. Even so, Moscow denies involvement, and President Vladimir Putin recently mocked European fears, while former President Dmitry Medvedev declared it was good for Europeans to “feel the danger of war on their own skin”. As Reuters reported, such comments are widely viewed as psychological warfare.

A Divided Atlantic: Washington Distracted

While Europe braces for the worst, the other side of the Atlantic seems consumed by its own turmoil. CNN noted that the US political scene has been overtaken by domestic crises, from the Charlie Kirk assassination to yet another government shutdown. As Europe watches nervously, Washington’s distractions only heighten its unease.

President Donald Trump’s ambivalence toward NATO has deepened European fears. Following the Russian drone incidents, CNN reported that the President’s online post of “Here we go!” positioned him more as a bystander than a leader. He later suggested the incident “might have been a mistake” before ambiguously telling the United Nations that NATO countries should “shoot down Russian planes depending on the circumstances”. Such mixed signals have left America’s allies questioning his resolve.

Europe Rearms, But Doubts Linger

European determination has fueled a new phase of rearmament across the continent. Countries like Poland, France, and Germany are rapidly building up air defenses and exploring what they call a “drone wall” along the eastern frontier, according to European defense experts cited by The Guardian. Meanwhile, Ukraine has begun training NATO personnel on Russian tactics, signaling that preparation extends beyond Europe’s borders.

Yet these efforts face serious limitations. Majda Ruge of the European Council on Foreign Relations told CNN that Europe still lacks an efficient way to counter cheap Russian drones, highlighting the unsustainability of using advanced jets like F-35s for such tasks. Domestic political challenges exacerbate the problem: AP News reported that France is mired in crisis, while Germany struggles to convince voters to fund unpopular military spending. These obstacles suggest that even determined rearmament may not fully prepare Europe for a rapidly evolving threat.

Former NATO chief George Robertson emphasized that security must be approached as a “whole-of-country enterprise,” while Nicholas Dungan, head of CogitoPraxis, warned to Reuters that NATO’s next challenge lies in civilian resilience. “It depends on the resilience of the whole of society,” he said, framing defense not just as a military concern but a societal one.

Despite these initiatives, Europe’s security may ultimately hinge on Washington’s engagement. Analysts warn that US disengagement could have severe consequences and Kristine Berzina told CNN that a “kinetic incident”—a miscalculated strike—might be the only event capable of forcing the West to wake up.

Russia’s strategy has proved alarmingly efficient: it has unsettled Europe, eroded confidence in the US, and exposed NATO’s uneven preparedness. While European governments scramble to respond, AP News notes that much of the American public remains largely unaware of how close the continent stands to confrontation. As Berzina warned, “Russia has learned far too much in the last three years for Europe to be as underprepared as it is”. The central question is no longer whether Moscow will test NATO again—but whether Washington will even notice when it happens.