The Next Phase of Hezbollah’s Strategy

By Mohamad Hammoud

A Strategic Reawakening

In the hills of southern Lebanon and the crowded neighborhoods of Beirut’s southern suburbs [Dahyieh], a quiet rebuilding is underway. According to a report by Ynetnews on October 18, 2025, Hezbollah is “rebuilding its capabilities at full speed,” drawing lessons from modern conflicts such as the war in Ukraine. The report said the group has begun developing its own drones and tactical innovations to adapt to contemporary warfare.

The Institute for the Study of War [ISW] confirmed that “Israeli” media have acknowledged Hezbollah’s success in restoring its command structure and revitalizing its military systems. This rebuilding effort reflects a broader strategic recalibration — a deliberate evolution designed to prepare for future challenges in a constantly shifting regional landscape.

Building Independence Through Technology

One of the most notable developments is Hezbollah’s emphasis on self-reliance. Ynetnews reported that in June 2025, the movement began producing its own drones to reduce dependence on external suppliers, following the 2024 conflict, when “Israeli” airstrikes targeted Unit 127 facilities.

Analysts say this effort reflects a broader shift toward decentralized, low-cost warfare — a strategy shaped by lessons from Hezbollah’s previous war and further inspired by the Russia–Ukraine conflict, where flexibility and speed often outweigh sheer firepower.

According to Asharq Al-Awsat, “Israeli” officials acknowledged that many of the 2024 strikes targeted workshops and warehouses. Yet despite these attacks, production has quietly resumed in several locations, underscoring Hezbollah’s determination to sustain its defense capabilities.

A Shift Toward Efficiency

The new strategy centers on efficiency — fewer resources, greater flexibility, and smarter deployment. According to Ynetnews, Hezbollah has transitioned from maintaining large arsenals to using smaller, easily hidden systems. The group’s arsenal now includes kamikaze drones and advanced anti-tank missiles that require minimal infrastructure and personnel.

Lebanese analysts say Hezbollah’s revised approach reflects the “Haifa for Dahyieh” equation — a strategy built on deterrence, signaling that any future confrontation would target sites beyond Haifa and “Tel Aviv” in response to strikes on Lebanese civilian areas. They describe this as part of a long-term plan aimed at managing conflict rather than escalating it, a balance that has defined Hezbollah’s strategy since the end of the 2024 hostilities.

Economic Adaptation and Social Support

While military rebuilding draws most of the attention, Hezbollah’s ability to sustain its structure also depends on financial resilience. Le Figaro, as cited by Ynetnews on October 19, 2025, described the movement as “weakened but resilient,” noting that it continues to function through a network of companies, charitable institutions, and community funding.

A report by “The Times of Israel” in September 2025 said Hezbollah remains financially stable, mainly due to its diversified income sources that span local businesses and foreign contributions. Western analysts have also observed that Hezbollah’s social programs in education, healthcare, and reconstruction continue to secure significant public support among Lebanon’s Shia population.

This economic adaptability is not merely financial; it is social and political. By sustaining its welfare institutions and grassroots base, Hezbollah has preserved its legitimacy in Lebanese society while recovering from wartime losses.

“Israel’s” Continuing Response

Officials from “Israel” have publicly acknowledged Hezbollah’s reconstruction efforts. According to the “Israeli” army’s Spokesperson’s Unit, “Israel” continues to conduct limited air operations inside Lebanon aimed at “disrupting the group’s attempts to rebuild its military infrastructure.” Reports from the Long War Journal indicated that between October 6 and 12, 2025, “Israeli” forces carried out strikes targeting what they described as Hezbollah logistical sites and equipment.

Despite these actions, Hezbollah’s decentralized structure has made it increasingly difficult for “Israel” to achieve lasting disruption. Analysts in Beirut say the group’s decision to rely on small-scale production and mobility has effectively limited the impact of periodic airstrikes. As one Lebanese observer put it, “Hezbollah is not rebuilding what it lost; it is reinventing how it fights.”

Reflection: A Movement in Transition

Recent reports suggest not decline, but transformation. Hezbollah is entering a new era defined by innovation, discipline, and adaptability. Its domestic drone programs, shift to smaller weapon systems, and sustained social support indicate a movement evolving in both form and function.

For “Israel,” Hezbollah presents a subtle but persistent challenge: a neighbor that rebuilds quietly, avoids direct confrontation, and prepares for the long term. In Lebanon, the group’s influence extends beyond military strength - it remains deeply integrated into society, providing social services and maintaining community support. As one Beirut analyst observed, “Hezbollah is not waiting for the next war - it is preparing for the next phase.”