IMF: US Debt to Exceed Italy’s by 2030, Signaling Deepening Fiscal Strains

By Staff, Agencies

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the United States’ government debt will surpass Italy’s by the end of the decade, highlighting Washington’s worsening fiscal outlook and the erosion of its reputation for financial discipline.

According to IMF estimates cited by The Financial Times, the US general government gross debt is expected to reach 143.4% of GDP by 2030 — overtaking Italy’s for the first time in modern history.

While Italy, long viewed as Europe’s emblem of fiscal fragility, is projected to slightly reduce its debt ratio, US debt levels are rising toward record highs.

The IMF warned that Washington’s budget deficit will remain above 7% of GDP annually through the decade, the highest among advanced economies.

Persistent structural shortfalls and surging interest payments are driving the increase, despite steady economic growth and continued global demand for the US dollar.

Economists note that while the US retains unique advantages — issuing debt in its own currency and benefiting from deep capital markets — these strengths may not shield it indefinitely.

The Fund cautioned that “continued fiscal complacency” could eventually erode investor confidence and destabilize global markets.