"Israeli" Round Up 4-8-2010

The Lebanese army emerges as "Israel's" new pro-active foe

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis

By launching a cross-border sniper attack on "Israeli" forces Tuesday, Aug. 3, and provoking a major clash, the 9th Brigade of the Lebanese Army laid down a new fact of life in the Middle East: The next war against "Israel" will be fought - not by the Hizballah militia, but by the Lebanese army, whose mission is henceforth merged into
the radical objectives of the Iran-backed terrorist group.

By taking on "Israeli" forces, the Lebanese Army assumed responsibility for the volatile Lebanese-"Israeli" border and showed it was prepared to take the consequences of aggression. Never seen as capable of anything more than substandard police work and inclined to run a mile from combat situations, this army was described by DEBKAfile's military sources as having astonished military observers by its performance against the IDF.

1. Its commanders proved capable of catching the "Israeli" military unawares, in exactly the same way as Hizballah did when it kidnapped and murdered three "Israeli" soldiers in 2000 and, again, when it snatched another two "Israeli" officers in a cross-border raid in 2006.

In both cases, the terrorists stole across the border into "Israel".

Tuesday, the Lebanese army showed itself to be not only an apt pupil of Hizballah's tactics, but capable of going "one better." Its snipers shot Lt. Col. (Res.) Dov Harari, 45, from Netanya, in cold blood as he stood well inside the "Israeli" border, and seriously injured Capt. Ezer Lakiya from Kfar Harif. Doctors are fighting to save his life by removing a piece of shrapnel from his heart.

Both were watching "Israeli" troops carrying out routine tasks on the "Israeli" side of the border fence.
2. The Lebanese army was able to hoodwink "Israeli" military intelligence border scouts and keep its plan of attack dark. The fact that Hizballah was also out of the picture would have been cold comfort for the "Israeli" high command.

3. Its commanders were not deterred by "Israeli" retaliation and rather than backing down raised the pitch of violence.

4. "Israel" commanders judged that, by exacting a painful price, they could silence the enemy's guns. They therefore bombed the Lebanese Army's regional command center at Taybeh, torched an APC and left three soldiers dead. The enemy kept on shooting.

5. The day's combat ended with the Lebanese army's 9th Brigade established as a new threat to the "Israel" Defense Forces from positions abutting the border.

Its presence in South Lebanon is moreover legitimate, unlike Hizballah, which moved men and weapons into the south although prohibited from doing so by the UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006.
6. The Lebanese army may decide to follow up on its attack, using one flimsy pretext or another. After all, the UN peacekeepers stood by idly when the snipers opened fire into "Israel" under the world body's flag.

8. The IDF's response was disproportionately mild given the loss of two high commanders in an act of unprovoked aggression. But it was enough to allow Hizballah's Hassan Nasrallah to pose as Lebanon's great national unifier.

In the speech he delivered Tuesday night, he capitalized on the incident by saying he had ordered his militiamen not to interfere in the clash with "Israeli" forces, commended the Lebanese Army for its bravery in taking on the Zionist foe and let it be understood that his rockets and missiles would be made available for the next round of fighting with "Israel".
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A Lebanese question mark

Roee Nahmias, "Yedioth Ahronoth"

So why did the Lebanon border skirmish take place? To be honest, this very question is being asked not only in "Israel". Many are asking it in Lebanon as well - President Michel Suleiman, Prime Minister Saad Hariri (who was vacationing in Sardinia,) and even Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah.

These figures, and not only they, were surprised by the incident. With the passage of time it appears that the accurate sniper fire directed at IDF forces was a local, well-organized initiative, rather than a mad outburst by a crazed soldier. Apparently, field commanders endorsed the attack.

In Beirut, President and former Army Chief Michel Suleiman, as well as Lebanon's current chief of stuff, rushed to issue ostentatious endorsements of their army's actions, even though they had no idea about the plans to open fire. Yet they weren't the only ones who didn't know. It appears that Hassan Nasrallah himself was caught by surprise - had the incident spun out of control, he would have been the target of "Israel's" harshest blow.

Nasrallah attempted to blur this in the speech he delivered in Beirut Tuesday, declaring that his organization would "cut off "Israel's" arm." However, one cannot dispute the facts: His group did not open fire, and he admitted that this was intentional, in a bid to stay out of the game. Hezbollah is certainly not interested in war, at least not at this time.

However, the question of "why" is not the only one being looked at now. The other important question is whether the incident was related to the immense pressure building up in Lebanon ahead of the international indictments over the assassination of late PM Hariri.

Lebanese water barrel

The answer to this question is complex. On the one hand, the incident is apparently unrelated. After all, Nasrallah and his people, who are facing the pressure, did not initiate the border skirmish. Nasrallah does not wish to be portrayed as a provocative element in Lebanon at this time, but rather, as a dignified element that wishes to safeguard the interests of all Lebanese.

On the other hand, the pressure faced by Hezbollah, which is directing it towards the whole of Lebanon, is threatening to erupt - whether inside Lebanon or outside, towards "Israel". At this time, Lebanon can be likened to a tightly sealed water barrel. The first to poke a hole in it would have to contend with the water outburst.

In any case, the major skirmish served to nicely highlight the rules of the game in the Lebanese theater: On the one hand, everyone condemns "Israel" automatically. On the other hand, everyone, including Syrian president Assad, makes do with words for the time being.

On Tuesday we saw a parade of figures slamming "Israel" and accusing it of a "criminal act." However, as it turned out, these figures quickly realized what exactly had materialized and moderated their tones. Soon after the incident, field commanders sought a ceasefire with "Israel" and the evacuation of the dead and wounded.

Yet beyond all these questions, one question mark must concern everyone - the Lebanese army. The same army lauded by "Israel" when it deployed in southern Lebanon following the Second Lebanon War, in the hopes that it would replace or at least restrain Hezbollah's activity in the area, has surprisingly turned out to be a problematic element.

As it turns out, it is unclear to what extent this army adheres to orders from Beirut. It's a military whose field commanders take potentially fateful initiatives, and in any case some suspect that it is highly vulnerable to Hezbollah penetration, if only for the simple reason that about half of its troops are Shiite.

Will this military - which usually excels in ceremonies but rushes to get out of the area at times of confrontation - stand by Hezbollah in a future clash? Or what's even graver: Is it possible that Lebanese army officers and soldiers will initiate the move that would lead to the next confrontation? In the final analysis, another element that had not been taken into account before is now part of the boiling Lebanese arena - this element may also end up poking a hole in the overloaded Lebanese barrel.

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"Israel" blames U.S., France for arming Lebanon

By Barak Ravid and Shlomo Shamir, "Haaretz"

"Israel" will launch a diplomatic campaign calling on the United States and France to stop their military assistance to Lebanon following Tuesday's exchange of fire on the northern border.

"Countries are providing the Lebanese army with advanced weaponry for it to fight Hezbollah, and instead the Lebanese army is using the weapons to fire on IDF soldiers," a senior official in Jerusalem said on Tuesday.

The United States has given Lebanon approximately $400 million over the past year to purchase arms, despite "Israel's" objections. France has also sent a great deal of weaponry to Lebanon, including advanced anti-tank missiles.

"Israel" is expected to ask the U.S. Congress to limit its approval of financial aid to Lebanon for arms purchases.

The United States and France issued sharply worded messages to Jerusalem and Beirut yesterday, calling for immediate de-escalation. Top White House Middle East adviser Dan Shapiro phoned "Israel's" ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren, asking him to inform Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the administration expects him to act with restraint. A similar message was sent to Lebanon's ambassador to Washington, Antoine Shadid.

Meanwhile, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner telephoned Defense Minister Ehud Barak, asking that "Israel" show restraint and "check the facts surrounding the events." Barak asked Kouchner to make it clear to Lebanon that any further baiting of "Israel" would lead to an even harsher response. Barak called the incident a "planned provocation."

The UN Security Council held a closed-door session on Tuesday after the event. The head of the UN peacekeeping forces, Alain Le Roy, presented the council with the results of UNIFIL's initial probe of the incident. Le Roy did not blame either side for the incident, nor did he accept "Israel's" claim that the Lebanese troops opened fire first.

The Security Council made do with issuing a short statement at the end of the meeting, calling on both sides to show restraint.

Senior officials in "Israel" were angry the Security Council had not found Lebanon responsible for the incident.

Earlier on Tuesday, "Israel's" UN envoy Gabriela Shalev wrote to the UN secretary general and the president of the Security Council, saying that "Israel" had coordinated its work near the border fence with UNIFIL and that the Lebanese army opened fire first, in a flagrant violation of Security Council Resolution 1701.

The deputy chief of "Israel's" delegation to the United Nations, Ambassador Daniel Carmon, told Haaretz that "the two attacks yesterday on an "Israeli" patrol were not decided on by a single soldier or local commander".

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IDF: Journalists were tipped off

Presence of cameramen, journalists at site of deadly clash proves it was planned ambush, IDF says

Smadar Peri, "Yedioth Ahronoth"

Journalists and photographers were briefed in advance of the intention to ambush IDF troops and were therefore present at the site of Tuesday's deadly clash between "Israeli" and Lebanese forces, IDF officials charge.

The lethal skirmish ensued after IDF forces performing routine operations in a border-area enclave came under Lebanese fire. The "Israeli" troops fired back, killing three Lebanese soldiers and a local journalist.

The killed correspondent, Assaf Abu Rahal, worked for Hezbollah-affiliated Beirut daily al-Akhbar.

Another journalist, Ali Shuaib from Hezbollah's al-Manar station, was wounded in the incident and was taken to hospital for treatment.

IDF officials raised questions about the presence of journalists and even broadcast trucks at the scene even before the clash ensued, charging this further reinforces suspicions that the incident was a well-planned Lebanese ambush.

"If this incident was not planned in advance, why did field commanders in the Lebanese army bother to dispatch journalists to the area and ensure that cameras were present at the site?" one IDF official said.

According to earlier reports, UNIFIL forces who toured the site of Tuesday's deadly exchanges of fire on the northern border said the IDF's activity did not warrant the attack launched by Lebanese Army soldiers, "Israeli" army officials who spoke to UNIFIL representatives said.

According to the IDF, soldiers were performing routine operations in a border-area enclave within "Israeli" territory when they were ambushed by Lebanese troops.