America on the Edge: Is the Nation Sliding Toward a Second Civil War?

By Mohamad Hammoud

Lebanon – Rising political polarization, militarized domestic policy and attacks on civil liberties fuel fears of a “pre-civil-war” America.

As convoys of National Guard vehicles roll into major American cities, the nation confronts a question once confined to history books: Is the United States teetering on the brink of a second civil war? Across cable news, universities, and even inside the Pentagon, experts warn the country may be entering a “pre-civil-war” phase. CNN reported that the concern stems from President Donald Trump’s deployments into majority-Black, Democratic-led cities, alongside broader efforts that critics say undermine democratic norms and free speech.

Militarizing Dissent

The pattern is unmistakable. At a January rally in Iowa, Trump mused that the Civil War “could have been negotiated,” bewildering historians. Eight months later, he invoked the 1807 Insurrection Act to send troops into Chicago, Portland, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker called it an “unconstitutional invasion,” while Oregon’s Tina Kotek warned her state was treated like “a military target”. Reuters reported a federal judge partially blocked the Chicago deployment, calling the administration’s rationale “unreliable”. Yet soldiers are already stationed in downtown convention centers, signaling a new precedent for federal intervention even where violent crime is low.

The Symbolic Enemy

Legal scholars note that deploying the National Guard against governors’ wishes erodes federalism. CNN highlighted that crime data contradicts the administration’s claims: Chicago’s homicide rate is at a 60-year low, and Washington, D.C.’s violent-crime rate is the lowest since the early 1990s. Yet the White House frames these deployments as necessary to restore order, portraying communities as lawless.

Central to this narrative is Antifa, short for “anti-fascist”. The Guardian reported that the movement is small and decentralized, yet Trump frames it as a terrorist organization, describing it as “militant anarchists” and likening them to ISIS or Hamas. Analysts argue that this symbolic enemy justifies militarization and rallies his base. Barbara Walter, author of How Civil Wars Start, told CNN civil wars rarely begin with armies; they ignite when opponents are dehumanized, governments use force against citizens, and neighbors see each other as threats. By branding Antifa a national threat, the administration fuels the “enemy within” narrative.

The Council on Foreign Relations warned in March 2025 that treating protests as insurgencies “accelerates polarization and normalizes domestic militarization,” historically preceding civil conflict. One side sees Antifa and progressives as radicals destroying tradition; the other sees Trump’s supporters and militias as authoritarian threats.

Erosion of Democratic Norms

Militarization coincides with attacks on civil liberties. Reuters reported federal agents confronted protesters outside Chicago’s ICE facility, resulting in a civilian death, while largely peaceful Portland demonstrations are still portrayed as violent riots. Congress and the White House have pursued measures to restrict online speech, sanction media outlets, and weaken oversight. Legal experts warn that emergency powers used to suppress dissent erode the rule of law, democracy’s ultimate safeguard.

States have pushed back. Oregon’s attorney general obtained a temporary restraining order; Illinois seeks a permanent injunction. City councils in Chicago, Baltimore and Portland have drafted ordinances limiting federal presence. Judge April Perry asked, “If the federal government can insert soldiers into American cities every time it disagrees with local policy, what is left of federalism?” Today’s battlefield is not Gettysburg but city streets where children buy soda under armed guards and neighbors view each other with suspicion.

Polarization and Pre-Civil War Dynamics

While Antifa remains small, Trump’s narrative transforms it into a symbolic threat, reinforcing the perception that one side is dismantling society. The Guardian noted polarization intensifies when both sides believe the other threatens the nation’s survival, a hallmark of “cold civil war”.

The risk is institutional decay rather than conventional conflict. Michael Kazin, a political scientist, told CNN that civil strife emerges from eroded institutions, normalized political violence, and public acceptance of threats from fellow citizens. Trump’s focus on Antifa exemplifies this: by labeling dissent as terrorism and targeting minority-led urban centers, the administration amplifies fear, mistrust in elections and acceptance of state force against political opponents.

The American Precipice

Experts warn the nation is at a tipping point. CNN reported that rising domestic terrorism, mistrust in elections, and selective use of state power indicate a society in a “pre-civil-war” phase. Barbara Walter and others note civil wars ignite not with battle lines but when institutional trust collapses and opponents are dehumanized. The Guardian highlighted that when protests are demonized and force is selectively deployed, societal fragmentation accelerates, producing separate realities for opposing groups.

Whether the Union endures depends less on soldiers than on citizens: voters, judges, journalists and the quiet majority who believe ballots must prevail over bullets. The next chapter remains unwritten, but CNN observed the ink is wet, and the pages are turning fast, signaling a national choice between democracy and division.