US Miscalculated Iran’s Response After Nuclear Strikes
By Staff, Agencies
Iran’s ability to influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has become one of Tehran’s most powerful tools in its confrontation with the United States and “Israel,” enabling it to impose global economic costs without resorting to nuclear weapons, Newsweek reported.
Meanwhile, the war has shifted from Washington’s allegations over Iran’s nuclear program to maritime trade, where Tehran holds major strategic leverage. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have unsettled global markets and increased economic pressure, while Trump has repeatedly threatened further strikes before backing away.
Against this backdrop, analysts cited by Newsweek argued that Tehran’s capacity to disrupt one of the world’s most important shipping corridors may provide greater practical leverage than a weapon that could trigger overwhelming international retaliation.
“Iran’s ability to impose economic pain on the global economy is, in some ways, a more powerful weapon than a nuclear bomb,” Joshua Tallis, a former senior US Navy official and director of the Center for Naval Analyses’ Ally and Partner Security Affairs program, told Newsweek.
In Practice, Iran has turned decades-old warnings over the Strait of Hormuz into a strategy centered on low-cost, asymmetric operations that disrupt global trade and energy flows.
As a result, shipping and insurance costs have surged, while the US has been forced to expend costly interceptor missiles against cheaper Iranian drones and projectiles, with reports indicating Tehran is replenishing its capabilities faster than expected.
On the diplomatic front, Iran has placed the Strait of Hormuz at the center of its diplomatic efforts. While Trump claimed a new agreement with Tehran could be near, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei denied plans for direct talks with Washington, saying discussions are instead underway with Oman on securing safe navigation through the strait.
At the same time, Oman has emerged as a key mediator due to its neutral stance and strategic location opposite Iran. As Muscat promotes proposals to safeguard shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has shifted international attention from Washington’s original war objectives to negotiations over the waterway’s future governance and security.
Meanwhile, Yemen’s Ansarullah has added further pressure on Washington through Red Sea operations that disrupted shipping and increased global trade costs. After previously halting attacks following a Gaza ceasefire, the movement resumed operations last month, targeting Saudi-linked vessels in response to Riyadh’s blockade of Yemen and attacks on Sanaa International Airport.
Consequently, the escalation has fueled doubts among Saudi Arabia and other US allies about Washington’s ability to shield them from a wider war.
Accordingly, analysts told Newsweek that recent developments have weakened the deterrent value of US military threats, with Iran and other regional actors increasingly questioning their effectiveness.
Finally, the collapse of a June memorandum of understanding after Washington resumed strikes on Iran and facilitated tanker transit through an unauthorized route has further undermined prospects for a new agreement.
Iranian analysts argue that a prolonged war could increasingly strain the US through rising economic, political, and logistical costs, while Tehran would continue relying on asymmetric tactics to raise the cost of the US military presence in West Asia.
