"Israel" Grim Scenarios for 2008 Lists Iran, Syria, Rockets as Top Threats
Source: Agencies, 10-03-2008
'Israeli' intelligence agencies painted a bleak picture of threats facing the Zionist state in an annual assessment Sunday that came on the heels of the deadliest Palestinian attack in Al Quds (Jerusalem) in four years. Iran and its controversial nuclear program remain the main threat seen by the Zionist state, while rocket fire from Gaza is the most active front it is facing, a senior official quoted intelligence chiefs as telling the weekly Cabinet meeting.
"The main strategic threats are from Iran through its nuclear program and the pivotal role it is playing as a leader of the radical axis in the Arab and Muslim world," the official quoted the annual report as saying.
Iran is also increasing its cooperation with other foes Syria, Lebanon's Hizbullah and Palestinian militant groups, he said.
While rocket fire from Gaza is the most "active front 'Israel' is facing today," a widescale offensive by 'Israel' in the coastal strip would likely lead to a flare-up of violence with Hizbullah, as was the case in 2006, the report said. "If 'Israel' launches a broad operation in Gaza, it could lead to violence on other fronts, most notably from Hizbullah," the official said.
Last Thursday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert heard assessments on the Middle East from historian Bernard Lewis. The 93-year-old Mideast expert, who is wrapping up a three-month stay in 'Israel', was invited to a meeting with Olmert by Cabinet Secretary Oved Yehezkel, a history teacher by profession.
Besides Olmert, Lewis had meetings in recent weeks with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu and MI chief Amos Yadlin.
In contrast to what the ministers will hear from the intelligence chiefs, Lewis opened his conversation with Olmert on a relatively optimistic note, saying that several Middle Eastern countries are in the process of going through the "Sadat syndrome."
For Lewis, negotiating with Syria would be a mistake. "There is no 'Sadat syndrome' in Syria," he told Olmert. "That regime must be replaced."
On the Iranian nuclear program, the ministers will hear that in 2009, unless stopped, Iran might cross the technological threshold enabling it to assemble a bomb. But Lewis told Olmert that the nuclear issue must not be the sole focus regarding Iran. "Iran is not a 20th-century invention," Lewis said, "it is a country with a heritage of thousands of years, and the Iranian people believe in the need to be advanced and a global leader, so the sanctions on the nuclear issue unite it behind the regime." Lewis recommended "focusing on action against the oppression that the Iranian regime exercises and bringing about its replacement."
One topic Lewis and the intelligence heads are likely to agree on is the impact the U.S. elections will have on the Middle East. President George W. Bush no longer has any influence, Lewis said, and the entire region is waiting to see who will succeed him.
In late June 2006, 'Israel' launched a major operation in Gaza after militants tunneled out of the coastal strip and seized a soldier in a heroic raid.
Two weeks later, Hizbullah seized two soldiers in a separate deadly border raid, and matters escalated into a 34-day war against Lebanon.
Its stated aims were to recover the soldiers and halt rocket attacks into northern 'Israel'. Neither was achieved.
Sunday's assessment comes just days after a Palestinian gunman shot dead eight settlers, at a Zionist theological school. Thursday's attack was the deadliest in the holy city since February 2004.
During the annual intelligence assessment, the head of the Shin Bet internal security services said 25 Arab 'Israelis' had been arrested in 2007 over suspected links to militant groups in the Occupied West Bank.
Thursday's attack threatened to derail international efforts to negotiate a truce between the 'Israeli' military and Palestinian militants and to advance faltering peace talks.
But both 'Israeli' and Palestinian officials told AFP Saturday that the peace talks will resume next week despite the violence.
There has been a sharp upsurge in violence around Gaza since February 27 when an 'Israeli' raid killed five Hamas militants, prompting a barrage of retaliatory rocket fire against southern 'Israel'.
Since then, at least 132 Palestinians, about half of them civilians, have died in 'Israeli' attacks, including several dozen children. Four 'Israeli' soldiers and one 'Israeli' settler have died over the same period.
'Israeli' intelligence agencies painted a bleak picture of threats facing the Zionist state in an annual assessment Sunday that came on the heels of the deadliest Palestinian attack in Al Quds (Jerusalem) in four years. Iran and its controversial nuclear program remain the main threat seen by the Zionist state, while rocket fire from Gaza is the most active front it is facing, a senior official quoted intelligence chiefs as telling the weekly Cabinet meeting.
"The main strategic threats are from Iran through its nuclear program and the pivotal role it is playing as a leader of the radical axis in the Arab and Muslim world," the official quoted the annual report as saying.
Iran is also increasing its cooperation with other foes Syria, Lebanon's Hizbullah and Palestinian militant groups, he said.
While rocket fire from Gaza is the most "active front 'Israel' is facing today," a widescale offensive by 'Israel' in the coastal strip would likely lead to a flare-up of violence with Hizbullah, as was the case in 2006, the report said. "If 'Israel' launches a broad operation in Gaza, it could lead to violence on other fronts, most notably from Hizbullah," the official said.
Last Thursday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert heard assessments on the Middle East from historian Bernard Lewis. The 93-year-old Mideast expert, who is wrapping up a three-month stay in 'Israel', was invited to a meeting with Olmert by Cabinet Secretary Oved Yehezkel, a history teacher by profession.
Besides Olmert, Lewis had meetings in recent weeks with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu and MI chief Amos Yadlin.
In contrast to what the ministers will hear from the intelligence chiefs, Lewis opened his conversation with Olmert on a relatively optimistic note, saying that several Middle Eastern countries are in the process of going through the "Sadat syndrome."
For Lewis, negotiating with Syria would be a mistake. "There is no 'Sadat syndrome' in Syria," he told Olmert. "That regime must be replaced."
On the Iranian nuclear program, the ministers will hear that in 2009, unless stopped, Iran might cross the technological threshold enabling it to assemble a bomb. But Lewis told Olmert that the nuclear issue must not be the sole focus regarding Iran. "Iran is not a 20th-century invention," Lewis said, "it is a country with a heritage of thousands of years, and the Iranian people believe in the need to be advanced and a global leader, so the sanctions on the nuclear issue unite it behind the regime." Lewis recommended "focusing on action against the oppression that the Iranian regime exercises and bringing about its replacement."
One topic Lewis and the intelligence heads are likely to agree on is the impact the U.S. elections will have on the Middle East. President George W. Bush no longer has any influence, Lewis said, and the entire region is waiting to see who will succeed him.
In late June 2006, 'Israel' launched a major operation in Gaza after militants tunneled out of the coastal strip and seized a soldier in a heroic raid.
Two weeks later, Hizbullah seized two soldiers in a separate deadly border raid, and matters escalated into a 34-day war against Lebanon.
Its stated aims were to recover the soldiers and halt rocket attacks into northern 'Israel'. Neither was achieved.
Sunday's assessment comes just days after a Palestinian gunman shot dead eight settlers, at a Zionist theological school. Thursday's attack was the deadliest in the holy city since February 2004.
During the annual intelligence assessment, the head of the Shin Bet internal security services said 25 Arab 'Israelis' had been arrested in 2007 over suspected links to militant groups in the Occupied West Bank.
Thursday's attack threatened to derail international efforts to negotiate a truce between the 'Israeli' military and Palestinian militants and to advance faltering peace talks.
But both 'Israeli' and Palestinian officials told AFP Saturday that the peace talks will resume next week despite the violence.
There has been a sharp upsurge in violence around Gaza since February 27 when an 'Israeli' raid killed five Hamas militants, prompting a barrage of retaliatory rocket fire against southern 'Israel'.
Since then, at least 132 Palestinians, about half of them civilians, have died in 'Israeli' attacks, including several dozen children. Four 'Israeli' soldiers and one 'Israeli' settler have died over the same period.
