Venezuela Plans Guerrilla Resistance, “Chaos Strategy” to Counter Possible US Invasion

By Staff, Agencies

Venezuela is preparing for a guerrilla-style defense and contingency operations to counter any potential US military attack, according to sources familiar with the plans and internal documents reviewed by Reuters.

The strategy—part of what officials call a “prolonged resistance”—reflects both an admission of limited military capacity and a determination to defend national sovereignty at all costs.

The plans include deploying decades-old Russian-made weaponry and establishing small tactical units across more than 280 sites to conduct sabotage and irregular warfare if foreign forces intervene. A complementary strategy, known as “anarchization,” envisions using intelligence services and armed civilian groups to generate widespread unrest in Caracas, making the country ungovernable for invading troops.

These measures come as President Nicolas Maduro accuses Washington of plotting regime change following recent US naval and air operations in the Caribbean. While President Donald Trump has hinted at the possibility of “taking the land next” after targeting alleged drug-trafficking vessels, he has since denied planning strikes inside Venezuela. Still, the military buildup has heightened tensions across the region.

“The aggression will be responded to with national unity,” Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino declared during nationwide military exercises, emphasizing that Venezuela seeks peace but remains ready to defend itself. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello mocked the idea that airstrikes could topple the government, insisting that Venezuelans would resist “to the last town and mountain.”

Despite strong rhetoric, Venezuela’s armed forces face significant challenges. Low morale, outdated equipment, and chronic shortages have left many units struggling to maintain readiness. Some commanders, sources said, have resorted to bartering with local food producers to feed their soldiers. Rank-and-file troops earn the equivalent of about $100 per month—far below the basic cost of living.

Maduro has maintained the loyalty of military leadership by continuing Hugo Chávez’s policy of appointing officers to top government and state-company positions. But insiders admit that in a direct confrontation, “we wouldn’t last two hours in a conventional war,” as one source close to the government put it. Another acknowledged, “We’re not prepared to face one of the world’s most powerful and well-trained armies.”

Still, the government insists that millions of civilians are being trained through national militias. Maduro has said up to eight million Venezuelans stand ready to defend their homeland, though defense sources estimate that only about 5,000 to 7,000 armed supporters could realistically participate in “anarchization” efforts.

Venezuela’s arsenal, largely supplied by Russia in the early 2000s, includes aging Sukhoi fighter jets, tanks, helicopters, and roughly 5,000 Igla-S portable missiles. “Any military force in the world knows the power of the Igla-S,” Maduro recently said, claiming they had been deployed “to the last mountain, the last town, and the last city.”

According to leaked military manuals dating from 2012 to 2022, Venezuelan defense doctrine has long anticipated “imperialist aggression,” focusing on small-unit tactics, guerrilla survival methods, and the use of terrain for asymmetric warfare. One 2019 document even details how combatants could navigate by the sun and stars if cut off from communications.

Analysts suggest that Maduro’s televised military displays are designed less to showcase real capability and more to deter foreign intervention. “The underlying message isn’t about conventional power,” said defense expert Andrei Serbin Pont, “but deterrence through chaos—the warning that an invasion could unleash armed groups, paramilitaries, and ex-military fighters, plunging the region into instability.”

While the Venezuelan government publicly dismisses the prospect of a US invasion, its preparations reflect deep mistrust of Washington’s intentions and a readiness to transform any confrontation into a drawn-out, unpredictable conflict.